12- 4-08, LearnTexasHoldem:
When he hit his set his chances decreased
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Player raises me, approx 3Xbb, to my delight I re raise to about 85$ and am instantly called.
Flop is dealt, K(c) 6(s) 9(h) a dream flop for me. I decide to check my monster and the player bets out about 40$. At this point The flop is rainbow, and is unlikely that player holds a straight draw, but since I have been beaten in similar situations, I decide to raise. I put in a small raise (about 120$) the player thinks it over and re raises me to about 300$ at this point i still have roughly 1500$ in chips and he has me well covered with his 3K stack. I think it over for a long while and decide to push all in. At this point I have the nuts and am hoping he has a lower set or possible even AK or AA. Without Hesitation the player instantly calls my huge push. Turn card 4(c), River was the 4(s) for a final board of K(c) 6(s) 9(h) 4(c) 4(h).
I am gold right? what could he possibly have called so much money with on the flop?! I am stunned in disbelief when he turns over his hand. 4(s) 4(d). I researched this and found out I was 98% on flop and 99% on turn. Even when he hit his set his chances decreased!
After about half an hour of harassment the player finally type's this " all good players know when they have the goods" and says nothing more.
Does this always seem to happen to you when you finally build up your online bankroll to a respectable size? This is just one of many examples of why online is not profitable, sometimes the player is worse than the beat! I challenge any pro player to lose this much of their bankroll (for some it will be millions) and try to recover!
/Chris
Answer:
Hi Chris, Thanks for your story. That is a terrible bad beat, even worse than you think. When you are all-in on the flop your opponent needs two perfect cards to beat you. This means that he first has to hit a two outer and then a one outer. The chance of doing this is about 1 in 1,000. But if you play enough it will eventually happen. I was on the other side of a beat like that in a very loose and aggressive $10-$20 limit holdem game once.
Too loose over $1,500 on a bad beat like that is very tough and I know that it's no comfort when I say that it's important to remember that bad play like that is what makes this game so profitable in the long run for good players.
Hope your luck has turned!
Regards,
Clark Jensen
Learn Texas Holdem
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