11-30-05, LearnTexasHoldem:

The "Sometimes" Concept

One of my goals with this site was not only for helping beginning players get to the intermediate level, but also to help intermediate players get to the advanced level. The tip I'm about to compose here can be helpful for all players, but it is geared mainly towards more advanced players.

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I had a really hard time with the break through from low limit and middle limit games to upper limits. I'm good at doing my homework and there is a ton of info about starting holdem, there are even some good books that can help you beat middle limit games, but nothing is written to help you move up past middle limit games -- probably because not many people do.

When you look at a big game, the first thing you'll notice is that the game is more aggressive, with fewer players in preflop, and people often show down some pretty weak hands. To make sense of it all, you have to retrain your thinking, to view the game more as a shorthanded game or a heads up game, where you have to play to win. You won't be able to sit around and wait for good hands in the proper positions and expect to beat tough players. You'll have to get your hands dirty. I've come up with a little concept that helps make sense of what is going on, instead of thinking of it solely as playing any hand and hoping for the best. This concept is the "sometimes" concept. A few points will define it:

It is imperative that you can differentiate between someone who is playing a regular ABC poker style (raise with good hands) and a player who may be stepping out of line. You use this information to test who much you'll mix it up with them. This becomes especially important when you are playing out of the blinds and someone raises in late position. Much of the game is decided here and you need to develop skills for both defending and playing against the blinds. One little side tip here is that the worse someone plays postflop, the more hands you can play against them preflop, since if you hit a flop, you'll get full value on the hand. On the other hand if someone plays really tight post flop, you need to try to get more money in preflop with your good hands and most likely just muck your weaker hands. The way you pick up on how loose they are raising preflop is obviously watching their play. Also, pay attention to where they are raising with regards to where they raised before. And if you can develop a sense for their tilt level, that helps tremendously too. A guy that just lost a couple pots is much more likely to miss play his next hand than someone who is doing well for the session.

The easiest players to play against are those that are consistent. If you are consistently loose, I can beat you easily; I have an answer for that. If you are consistently tight, I can beat you too; I have an answer for that. The hardest player to beat, and what you'll find most at the upper levels, are players who mix it up. They sometimes raise with weak hands, and sometimes raise with good hands. The key is to understand how everyone else at the table is viewing your play. An example might be the following line of thought, "I haven't raised in 2 rounds, I'm under-the-gun, I'm going to raise with this suited connector." It is very difficult to play against that. I have to assume that you have a good hand, but that may actually work against me later since I'll misread your hand after a low flop and I'll get drilled. Again, this kind of thinking only works at bigger games against good players, you wouldn't want to make raises preflop against unthinking opponents, unless the raise was for value (to get more money in the pot with a strong hand like AA). See, this all ties into deception. If I raise preflop occasionally with a weak hand, the opponents assume I have a good one. If the flop comes back with high cards, most likely I'll win the pot with a bet. If the flop comes back all low, there is a good chance that the opponent will misread what I have and lose.

So it is necessary to spot players who are consistently playing one way or another -- like tight play, raising with only good hands, or looser more aggressive play. It is also necessary to spot players who have the ability to mix it up and most of the time have a hand, but sometimes have nothing at all. The hardest, toughest opponent is the latter, which you should aspire to. Part of the value in making occasional moves like this is to keep your opponents off balance and guessing. And even if the plays are overall break even, they have value because they allow you to get paid off on your good hands. I love it when I've raised the past two hands and gotten away with it, then on the third hand I've raised in a row I get a hand like AA and nail someone. I know what is going through his head at that point, he is thinking, "there is no way this guy has a hand, he just raised three times in a row." (This example makes it sound like you have to raise every other hand to do this, you don't.)

One more thing that ties into this that you can use at all limits is the idea of credibility. I mentioned above how you should do your best to understand how the other players see your play and how they are feeling. I intentionally don't always bet in certain spots when I don't have anything, like if everyone checked to me and I'm last to act, so I can build up my credibility. Then on another hand I may steal and since I didn't always bet when they checked to me, I will win much more often when it counts. What is going through their heads is, "this guy only bets when he has something." Not true! I just temper it some.

So this is something to think about. And like I said above, be careful about applying advanced techniques at low limit games. To beat a low limit game, I wouldn't be overly aggressive. I would only raise preflop to get more money in the pot when I had a good hand. Mixing up your play isn't really necessary since the players pay you off on your good hands. Just hit a flop and get paid off. Only implement deception when needed since it entails more risk.

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