06-28-05, LearnTexasHoldem:
The 2/4 Rule For Calculating Odds
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Remember, how we determine if a drawing hand is worth calling is comparing how much we might win with what our chances are of hitting. If we put in money into long shot draws and don't get enough chips back, we lose in the long run (regardless of the short term results). If you play holdem tournament, often times decisions will come down to comparing how much a person bet with how much is in the pot. One question I get often is: How do I know my chances of hitting my draw without having to do complex math in my head at the poker table? We have a quick way of figuring the odds and it is the 2/4 rule. The 2/4 rule gives you an answer that is within a percent or two of the actual figure. How the 2/4 rule for poker odds is as follows.
First, you need to count your outs. Outs in holdem are cards that can come to complete your hand. Let's say you have four to the flush on the flop. There are 9 cards left in the deck that can come to complete your flush (there are 13 of each suite in a deck). Now, next you multiply your outs by either 2 or 4 depending on if you are going to see one or two cards (either the turn or river, or turn and river). That number is then the amount of time your draw will hit. So for my flush draw to hit on either the turn or river I multiply my 9 outs by 4. That gives me 36. That means there is a 36% chance of my flush getting there if I call both the turn AND river.
If I were to only see the turn OR river card, I would only multiply my outs by 2 -- which equals 18%. This comes in very handy. You'll be faced with decisions based on odds all the time. In big multi-way limit holdem pots you'll sometimes have a weak holding but there might be enough money in the pot to peel off a card and in no limit holdem, how much your opponent bets will always be a consideration whether or not you call.
I'm going to one more example:
I have A5s in the big blind in limit holdem.
Three people limp and a person in the back raises. I call. Everyone calls. I make a quick mental note before the flop that there are 10 small bets in the pot.
The flop comes back J-8-5.
One person checks, another person bets and the preflop raiser just calls. Should I call, knowing that the first person most likely already has a Jack to beat me? In this case, I would call to see the turn card only. My chance to hit one of my two more 5's or three more Aces is around 10% on the turn card. I multiply my 5 outs by 2. I only multiply by 2 instead of 4 because I'm not going to see the river card too, just the turn card unless I hit. I'm getting that amount on the flop right now alone, and I can figure I'll make even more money from the people after the flop too. If this were a no limit holdem game, I would be making a similar calculation on the flop to see whether it was worth investing more in.
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