07-17-06, LearnTexasHoldem:

Texas Hold'em: Playing Well or Getting Lucky?

Most likely when we look at our game we aren't doing it because we are winning. We do it when we are losing and we try to figure out why we were winners before and not now. Long term winning in limit texas holdem poker depends on your consistency in making good decisions.

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Because poker has luck involved you'll have a portion of correct decisions that end up losing. That is normal and not really a problem. The problem with luck is that it can sometimes corrupt or taint your view of what you are doing correctly and incorrectly. It can reinforce bad play that eventually leaves you a consistent loser and you'll have no idea why.

Understanding lucks role in both winning and losing is important. It is also important to learn how to pick apart your game after a session to see if you are playing well. All of these things add up to allow you to create and play a game style that has predictable results. Consistency is the key to success but getting consistent requires work and that what this article is about.

Holdem is a game that involves a variety of skills. You need to have a good understanding of the fundamentals and math. You need to understand why certain hands do well against others and what scenarios suit varying cards. Then you need to be able to have the discipline to do what is right even if it is difficult or boring. You also need to be able to pay attention to other peoples game so you can dodge their bullets or squeeze out wins where otherwise you couldn't had you not been as attentive. You need to be patient and humble but at the same time be equally aggressive and relentless.

Lastly nothing beats experience for sharpening your game. With all this said, there is a factor in poker that you can't control or develop. The best player doesn't always win just as the best starting hand doesn't always win. Poker has luck. That luck keeps people playing for years even if they consistently lose. Random reinforcement is the strongest way to condition behavior; a winning session here and there is all it takes to keep them coming back.

What you need to realize is that luck can cut both ways. Luck can make your perfect play lose for session after session and it can make your bad play win session after session. If you have any hopes of playing poker successfully for a long period of time though, luck can't get you there. Luck is going against the odds and eventually math takes over and you get what's coming to you.

Because holdem has luck, you can't always win even if you do everything right. By the same token you can win a lot in a short period of time by playing badly. The problem is consistency though. Luck can't win over long amounts of time. Our definition of luck is going against the odds. For example let's say you have a 1:3 chance of beating me. If we play a few times you may actually be ahead. You would be getting lucky because you are winning more then the numbers say you should.

Now if we continue this for ten thousand times straight, you'll most likely be right at your 1:3 wins against me and I'll have all your money. See you can't rely on luck for long periods of time, it just won't work. The key in holdem is knowing enough about the game to look at your session and be able to see the difference. You don't want to have no idea why you lost or no idea why you won. This analyzing is impossible to do if you don't have a good basis for comparison. If you have no idea what is correct, then how can you possibly know if you are doing that? So the first step is to read up on the game. From there you'll have something to measure your game against.

I want to make sure you realize though that losing is part of texas holdem. You shouldn't blame yourself if you get nailed now and again and lose. Consider that a small investment to keep the games healthy. You want people to play badly against you and you are happy when they win occasionally. If luck didn't come through for them ever, they wouldn't keep dumping money into the system.

Texas holdem--low limit especially--is a game where you have a small edge. Now that doesn't mean the game is impossible to beat but when so many people are drawing against you, your odds go way down. On most hands you won't be a huge favorite, you'll just be a slight one or maybe you'll just be getting good odds to draw. Because of this, not losing isn't an option. You will lose some regardless of what you do. In the end you should win money but you'll have some swings and that's ok. The only loss you can legitimately swallow though should be the one that you can explain in terms of other people getting lucky to beat you. It's very easy for people to attribute all their losses to being unlucky but that usually isn't the case. Be honest with yourself and your game and you'll do much better.

This whole site is about teaching you what good play is. Because of that I don't want to try to summarize everything here. At the same time though I don't want to just talk in nothing but theory because that rarely helps. How much does "hey buddy, if you are losing look hard at your game", help you? Not much. So here are a few things that I have come up with to help you focus your session break down:

Lack of fundamentals - When you are in a hand, do you know what you want and what the other guy could have? Do you know enough about the rules to feel comfortable in what you are doing? When writing this right now I just saw a person raise with pocket Queens. The board came back Qd Jd Td. The turn was the King of diamonds. The big blind bet into the person with Queens. He called. The river was another King giving him a full house. The person checked and he checked behind him with a full house.

This is the most basic kind of mistake and it comes from not understanding what beats what and what you even want to catch. Do you understand why AK is a better hand then A3 and why you love having A3 in with you when you have AK? Do you know why big pocket pairs prefer less opponents? Do you know why suited connectors are hands you love to play when lots of people are in preflop?

Playing too loose (starting hands or post flop) - Are you playing too many cards? This is often the case at low limit. People don't think that playing a hand like K9 is that much worse then KQ or even KJ and they get sucked in and pay off a better hand. You occasionally win with hands like K9 and A8 so you don't notice how much of a hole it is in your game. The second kind of loose play is when you play tight preflop and then get out of control after the flop.

This is also really common. You'll have a guy who waits all day for good cards then just can't let them go no matter how bad things shape up. Your starting hand decision is just that, a start. You have a number of other crucial decisions before the hand is over. So don't think that just because you have AA or AK preflop that you are entitled to win or should stick around every time.

Going on tilt/getting frustrated - This is an easy one to do. You can get bad beated or bored and then it is easy to rationalize making moves that you wouldn't normally do. In the end you give up money that it took you a while to earn. Often times I am at a casino and there is a guy there who is getting incredibly lucky and has a mountain of chips in front of him. People get so pissed. All they can think about is how they had a better starting hand and he got lucky and cracked them. Now I'm not an angel and sometimes I lose it too but what helps me to keep my cool is to take myself out the moment and think long term.

I'm not here to win one hand and that one hand will mean very little in the end. I'll be bad beated a thousand times more in my poker life equal to that or worse. I will also play thousands of other similar situations where I come out on top as a huge winner. The guy who got lucky will eventually lose it back. Getting sucked into short term thinking just really screws up your game and stresses you out. Just think long term and relax. Playing correctly does win money in the end and they will get you sometimes in the middle.

Drawing when you shouldn't - This goes along with playing too loosely but I thought it deserved special attention because you may not realize what it is. There are a lot of situations in holdem where drawing isn't profitable and yet most people still do it. One situation jumps into my mind right now...lets say you have some middle cards like KJ and someone raises behind you. The flop comes back all low cards. Drawing to overcards here isn't smart and you're most likely just giving your money away.

Most likely the person who raised has you beat already, even if you catched, or they are also drawing to their overcards which are better then yours (AK, KQ, AJ, etc). Also that doesn't take into account that other players in the hand may already have a pair and when you catch your over card it will make them two pair. Low limit players are unpredictable. I like to draw for hands that if I hit are very strong.

There are plenty of other situations that can easily be avoided which keep you out of making bigger mistakes later. Learning to see when to be able to pick the right times takes experience and skill but it helps to make a conscious effort. You need to understand why you lost or won so you can make changes if need be.

The reason I wrote this article is because of a surfers question. He wanted to know how he could tell if he was playing well or just getting lucky. The easy answer to that question is consistency. Relying on luck can't lead to long term wins. The problem with waiting a long time before you assess your game is that poker costs money. Who wants to lose a bunch before trying to figure out why?

You want to be in the drivers seat as soon as possible and because of this you can't just use consistency to let you know if you are doing something right or not. Trial and error is really expensive and luck will make it even harder to figure out what plays can be repeated for profit and what has to be cut out. Because of this I recommended that you figure out what correct play is as much as possible then do session break downs and see where you need work.

Good luck and happy new year! Go pull some big freaking pots!

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