03- 3-08, LearnTexasHoldem:
Texas Hold'em: Ignoring the Odds
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Ignore the Odds When:
You Are Bluffing
Actually, this is misleading. You should ignore the odds in the sense that you do not always need to consider your odds of winning the hand at a showdown. You should consider your odds of pulling off a successful bluff.
In other words, if you have 6 2 in the small blind and are considering a raise of 3x the blinds, you shouldn't base your decision on the odds of a 6 2 beating a random hand. Instead, you should pay attention to the odds that your opponent will fold in this situation. If he will fold more than one time out of four, you have a positive expectation play.
You Are in Survival Mode in a Tournament
There may be times when it is mathematically correct to call in a tournament. That is to say, your pot odds exceed the odds against you winning the hand. However, in a tournament, if you lose your chips, you cannot buy back in.
Therefore, if you will be busted or crippled by losing, you may need to consider your odds of winning independent of the pot odds. That is to say, you may wish to pass on going all-in with a 20 percent chance to win, even if you have better than 4-to-1 pot odds. This can be especially true late in the tournament when you are close to the bubble.
Your Bankroll Is Low
You should never put yourself in a situation in which you cannot buy more chips in a good cash game. However, if you are getting good odds on a long shot call, but will have to leave the game if you lose, you may prefer to play smaller pots until you can build up your stack. This might happen if you are playing a high stakes game with amateurs who you can easily outplay after the flop.
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