12-30-03, LearnTexasHoldem:
Win or lose based on luck or skill/Knowing if you are playing well...
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Perhaps an example might help. Last night I was playing on a table with 10 players. I'm sat behind the dealer so I figure I can play a little bit looser than the 'rock' that I normally am. I get dealt T, 6 off-suit which I would normally fold. Anyway it gets round to me, everyone is still in and a call will let me see the flop. I decide to have a look and fold unless I get hit nice and hard. Now you will have to bear with me as I can't remember the exact cards but there was a T, 6 and another small card maybe a 2 or a 3.
So I think that with two pair and top pair showing I might not just fold but see what happens. Most players fold leaving about three of us still in. I only need to call to see the turn so I stay in. The card is no help but I remember it being small, certainly not a T, 6 or picture card.
Now I'm struggling. When it gets to my turn I check and then one other player raises. I decide to stay in and call. The river comes next, again no help to me, there is no chance of a flush for anyone, there are no picture cards on show and I figure that although there may be a straight out there nobody would have been mad enough to be playing this long on the chance of drawing it.
I decide to check, get raised and then call for the showdown. I have nothing better than the two pair that I flopped. I loose because the other guy has had 'pocket rockets' from the start.
Now I know that this is not your typical "what does blind mean?" question and that you probably can't answer on the site (feel free if you think it's worth it. Make an example of me if it will help me and others understand things better) but I'm sat here wondering if I played OK from a start position that was worth a gamble and just lost to a better hand or if I was played for a fool because I didn't think about there being a picture pair out there and was convinced that I had a good hand and kept throwing away good money after bad because I didn't want to fold? Should I have been more aggressive after the flop and then though about folding when the guy with the AA stayed in? Should I have been more suspicious of a guy who was raising every time with nothing showing on the board?
What I'm also wondering is how am I supposed to properly look at my games if I can't work out thinks like that....
Thanks
Paul
Answer: Those are excellent questions Paul. I'll answer the easier one first regarding your T6 hand. First of all I have to say that playing T6 off isn't the best hand in the world but you did gamble and if there is a time to throw in some bad hands it is in that exact position: everyone in already and no raise. Normally you won't get a great flop with that hand but this was the exception. You got a perfect flop, especially against someone holding AA.
From that point forward, it would be very hard to fold your hand unless something very obvious developed (like four to a flush or four to a straight). These kinds of things often happen out of the blinds, you get a marginal hand but it gets a great flop. A lot of the time you end up making money with them. When someone else catches up, you shouldn't second guess your play. Let's say you even have 72off in the big blind and no one raises.
The flop comes back 724 and you end up beating someone with pocket Aces. You won because he didn't play his hand right and let you in for free. Make note that for someone with an over pair (like AA) to beat your two pair already they have to catch another A or pair up the board with a card you don't hold. That isn't a very good chance. To win in holdem you have to make the best decisions based on the information you have. Good cards win more often then bad ones but don't forget that luck does play a part in the game.
You got lucky and you did your best to milk it for what it was worth. I don't know the exact cards or how the hand developed but if for some reason I had T6 and someone raised preflop and the flop was T64, I would cap it with him on the flop, or check raise the turn. The reason is because I know he has a big pair. If the board pairs up and doesn't give me the full house then I'm probably beat since he will have a bigger two pair but I wouldn't fold still, I would just call. Having two pair is really hard to fold unless you are sure you are beat. Lastly forget about a low limit holdem player ever folding pocket Aces. Most of them will just hold on to the hand solely for the reason to complain if they lose. =)
The answer to your other question regarding how you know if you are playing well or just getting lucky comes down to consistency. By definition luck can't be consistent or predictable or it wouldn't be considered luck anymore. The problem with this though is that most people can't look at a session and pick it apart to see which hands they got lucky on and which hands just held up. Because of this it is hard to cut out the bad play that costs you your money. Also who wants to lose for 10 sessions straight only to realize, "hey maybe I'm not playing well yet."
Lastly luck is part of the game and you'll have some wins because of it. That's not a problem but you can't live on luck alone. What I think would be helpful for you is to look at your poker day and try to analyze which hands you got lucky or unlucky on. For example you have 88 in the back and lots of people are in and someone raises with AA. The flop comes back K85 and you crush him. Was that lucky?
No. My definition of luck is when you are making a move that is unprofitable and it makes a gain on that hand but if you played the same way a million times in a row you would end up losing money. Notice consistency. Our 88 hand here had great odds since you'll catch your set about 1:8 times. You'll end up making money on that play in the long run. Another example is if you have AK and the flop is AK3. The turn is a 4 and the river is a 2. A person with pocket 2s wins. Now that is just lucky and bad play.
If you repeat that scenario a million times in a computer he will lose tons of money to you. He should have folded on the flop. These are the kinds of situations you want to try to avoid. You don't want to be the person trying to always catch up/go against the odds. You'll get lucky sometimes but overall you'll lose. The opposite is true. If you are playing good cards at the right times you may lose in the short run to luck but in the end you'll get the money. Note that it may take sometime though for the averages to make themselves evident.
Poker is an imperfect game because of luck and that is what makes it so fun. Luck keeps the bad players play reinforced. There are many things in poker that blur lines. It seems like most rules are mainly gray area including my definition of luck. It is not only the odds that play into your hand but also your view of the hand. For example let's say you have ATs and a bad player has AK. He has been raising all day with next to nothing. This particular hand you both flop and Ace and you end up catching a T on the river to beat him. Is that lucky?
By the strict odds definition of luck it is but in poker we aren't just playing odds we are also playing against the player. Because of that I think your play was fine. You don't lose your money in these situations. You lose your money by consistently making poor choices instead of good ones. So consistent bad play = consistent loose. Consistent good play = consistent win. What "good" play is depends and you'll figure that out more as you learn the game and get some experience.
Hope this helps out a bit. I'm going to create a section on this site that logs some of my play and thoughts so you can see what goes through my head on each hand and at the end of the day.
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