07-14-04, LearnTexasHoldem:
When to holdem, when to foldem
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You have mentioned through out your articles of cases when to fold but I did not find an entire article on the subject. For example, if I have a low wired pair, and I do not hit another on the flop, should I still draw through the turn and river? What about if I have suited connectors and I get two more suited on flop... should I then draw through the turn and river or just fold then and there? (I already know the answer to that one, I hope, but just trying to give you an idea.) I know you have spoken about pot odds, but is that the only determining factor of when to fold?
Also (probably another reason for my above question) I don't quite understand the pot value in correlation to your percent chance of hitting based off of outs in Pot Odds. Could you please give a few more examples?
Again, thank you for the site, and thank you for any response you are able to give.
~Jason
Answer: Thanks for the question James, it is a good one. I will put that on the list for the next article but I'll give some general answers now. First of all, the whole game of hold'em is based on that question and I'm not sure if I can give you a complete answer. We are always faced with incomplete information and we have to make guesses based on it. In poker there are two kinds of hands: made hands and drawing hands.
A made hand is for example if you have top pair, an over pair (like Aces), a straight, flush, two pair etc. A drawing hand is when you don't think you have the best hand but if certain cards come then you will; a flush draw for example. For each drawing hand you have, there are correspondent stats that will predict how often it will happen. So if you have a flush draw (four of one suit on the flop), if you continue to the river then you'll hit it about 1/3 of the time.
How you decide when to draw and when not to draw has to do with the return you'll get on your money (pot odds). If you only will hit the draw 1 out of 10 times and you'll have to put in $20 to do it, then the pot will have to be $200 to make it worth while. What if you had to pay $50 instead for a 1/10 draw when the pot was only $200 each time? You would lose money in the long run. If you played the hand 10 times then you would hit the draw once and make $200 but the other 9 times you would have to invest $450 total.
This is why you need to understand odds so you don't chase hands that will lose money in the long term. Remember, poker is a game of small edges and you make your money by exploiting those small edges over a long period of time.
The easiest way to calculate pot odds is to use the Two Four rule which gives an adequate percentage for the chances of hitting your draw. Let's take your small pocket pair example in a typical loose passive low limit game. You hold 88 in late position. Five people call for one bet ($2) making the pot size $10 already. The flop comes back A73. The first person bets and everyone folds to you. You assume he has the Ace and you would need to catch your one of your two 8s to win.
Do you have the odds to continue? Let's use our 2/4 rule which says that you multiply your outs by 2 if you want to see the turn and 4 if you see the river. That will give us our percentage for catching. In this case you have 2 more 8s in the deck. So 2 times 2 is 4% for the turn and 2 times 4 is 8% for the river. Since the pot is only $12, you definitely don't have the odds to even see the turn card. You could gamble but you'll lose money in the long run with that play. Four percent is worse then a 20:1 which means if you invest $2 you would need to get back $40 to break even. That's unlikely with the pot only $12.
Let's look at the straight draw example with the same scenario above. You hold 67s now and the flop gives you the flush draw. The first person best again and everyone folds to you. There are now 9 outs left in the deck that complete our flush. We plan on seeing the river on this one so our chance of catching it is 4 times 9 which equals 36%. Thirty six percent is around 1/3 of the time which means it is a 2:1. We are definitely getting the odds to continue since the pot is already $12 and we will get an additional couple bets if we hit.
In most situations the following draws aren't profitable:
- trying to hit your set on the turn or river with a pocket pair (like the 88 example above)
- going backdoor for flushes which means you only have 3 of your kind on the flop and have to hit two in a row
- trying to catch straights when you don't have a draw on the flop
These draws are in the gray area because many pots are large enough to see one card:
- trying to hit two pair or trips if you have a pair on the flop that isn't top pair
- gutshot/inside straight draws.
I want to finish up by mentioning two key topics related to odds and those are aggressive players and extra outs. When someone always is bluffing or betting really light hands, you can't be a slave to the odds because the person may actually have nothing. You may have more outs then you thought you did. You probably won't run into this as much when you first start playing but later on it will be an issue. For example, let's say you have JT and the flop is 78Q.
Notice you have the gutshot draw for the 9 but against a person who always bets, you may also have the winner if you catch a Jack or Ten. Lastly, learn how to recognize situations where you have extra outs instead of the garden variety draws; for example, you have A3clubs and the flop is 235 with one club. Notice you have a pair, gutshot and the backdoor flush draw. Another example is if you have QJclubs and the flop is KJ4 with one club. The turn could be another club, Q, J or T and you would have a decent hand to stick around with.
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