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- Here is the scenario - I've got 8,10clubs and the flop is 9,J,4 rainbow - So I flop the open ender. I call $5 to see the turn but don't hit - This is where my question comes and I can't quite get it...1 person bet in front of me with 2 others behind me (4 total in hand) - I looked at the pot and it was $72, so I figured since I only had 1 card to go, with 8 outs, I had roughly 16% chance of hitting the river. I saw it would cost me $10 for the $72 pot, giving me 7:1 on my bet.

I calculate that 7:1 is 15%, so I was right at the breaking point (i only use the 2/4 rule for odds - it is simple and really very close) - I folded figuring I was just off the mark - I think what i'm having a problem grasping is pot odds compared to % to hit. In the example above, if there were $82 in and it cost me $10 to call the river, then that would be 8:1 on my money. If I have the same 16% chance to hit, it seems correct to call, but i'm not sure why - If i'm getting 8:1 on my money, then can I take my % of winning and multiply that by 8?.

I've been playing for awhile now just always drawing whenever I flopped an open ended straight or 4 to the flush, w/out calculating odds - I figured since I've got a 33% chance to hit then it must be right to call, but now i'm seeing it isn't Always that easy - I'm trying to get this because I'm very focused on moving up the ranks of limit poker and while I understand how many outs I have to win, I need to find out what they mean by return on money - I don't know if this makes sense at all.

I understand that if you have a gutshot on the flop you have a 1/11 chance of hitting - If you are playing $3/6, how much needs to be in the pot for you to call $3 for the gutshot? I am guessing $33, but this is an easy calculation. If I have 8 outs then do I have a 1/4 chance on the river? How strongly should implied odds be considered when I'm playing a low limit game?

I will re-read the pot odds tips again - and again - but maybe I am just missing 1 little step - My buddy and I have been going over these things at work all week. When I told him the 2/4 rule for calculating odds, it was like a light went off for him. But we're still having a problem relating our chance of winning % regards to how much needs to be in the pot - and i'm in accounting, so I would think I should get it - I'm just missing something.

Paul

Answer:

Your example is in regards to limit holdem play. There is a difference in how players typically play draws -- openended and flushes -- between limit and no limit games:

- Limit Holdem - most players just go to the river with their draws, sometimes calling, sometimes raising the flop and betting it down. The exception to this would be if there was a raise on the turn and the player had to call two bets cold to still draw.

- No Limit Holdem - how players play draws vastly differs. Obviously a raise is more potent in no limit that limit so sometimes they do that to try to win outright. Other times flat calling may be correct. Other times folding may be correct. No limit requires a much closer evaluation of the pot odds and implied odds when calling to try and hit a draw. How much you can take the opponent for if you hit your draw matters a lot in no limit. The bigger his stack and the more willing he is to be trapped when you hit, the better your implied odds.

Now, back to your specific questions about limit holdem. First of all, do you need $33 in the pot to call for a gutshot draw that will hit 1/11 times? No. If the hand were to end right then, yes you would to break even, but there is more betting. And since the betting doubles for the turn and river bet, chances are that a lot more money will go in before the hand is over. Let's go over an example: Say you have JT in the big blind. One player raises, another calls and you call. There are 6.5 small bets in the pot already. The flop gives you a gutshot. The first player bets and the next player calls. Should you call or not? You are getting 6.5 to 1 on your money right now with a draw that will hit on the turn 1 in 11 times.

You have no intention of calling for the river if you miss the turn card. You need to get another 6 small bets, or 3 big bets total to make this worthwhile. That means if you call and catch the gutshot on the turn, and you check raise the player and bet the river and get called, you have a pot of 12.5 small bets. (That is assuming that the other player doesn't call another bet too, in which case you would make more on the play.) This example is an extreme one too because it uses a gutshot draw with very little chance of hitting, while in an openended draw or four flush draw, your chance of completing the draw is much greater. Also, this pot was one in which you only had two opponents. If you play in low limit games, many pots will be multi-way, even on the turn and river. In these types of pots, you have much greater implied odds.

It is important to understand that poker is not only a game of odds. A decision, like calling for a draw, can have a number of factors that you can't measure by calculating odds. Here are a couple:

- Extra outs. Say you have a hand like JT in the example above against a preflop raiser and another caller. What is to say that your only outs are the J or T? There will be plenty of times that either the Jack or Ten will also be live outs that give you the winning hand. Another example might be if you have A4s and have the nut flush draw against someone with KK. You have not only 9 outs for the flush, but also 3 outs for your Ace to win. Another example would be if you have 87s and flop an openended draw when your opponent has AK and missed the flop. Here you have the 8 outs for the draw, plus another 3 8's and 3 7's to win. Sure if you could see the cards of both hands, you could exactly measure the odds of your hand winning, but that isn't possible. Another facet of extra outs has to do with catching a draw in addition to what you already have. Say you have middle pair with 87 and the flop is J-8-6. If you call to see the turn, your only outs aren't the 2 remaining 8's and the 3 remaining 7's if the opponent has AJ. Extra outs might include picking up a 9 or 5 on the turn. Now you have the 5 outs from before, plus you an openended draw.

- Checking the turn. Many times in limit holdem (and no limit), someone will bet the flop and then the turn will get checked around. This can happen for all kinds of reasons from the original preflop raiser not connecting with the flop, to a scare card hitting the turn, to someone trying to get fancy with a big hand. Say you have a really horrible draw (one of the worst in holdem) like 33 with a flop like Q - 7 - 5. With two outs only, you are almost never getting the correct odds to call to try and hit the 33 on the turn. What I tell a lot of limit holdem players in low limit games though, is that if it only costs you one bet and the pot is pretty decent (3 or 4 opponents) peel off just one card. The flop bet is very small relative to the size of the pot and if the players play badly and call too many raises on the turn and river betting rounds, then this can make a huge pot. See in our example we can't correctly measure what will happen if everyone checks the turn. What if the turn card is an Ace or King? Everyone checks (for whatever reason) and the river is a 3. Or, what happens if someone just had A7 or JJ and got scared and didn't bet the turn when a 4 or 6 hit? Now not only do you get two free cards but you also have a good chance of winning the pot with a 3 or another 4 outs for the straight. All this cost you was one more small bet.

Here are some tips for low limit games where there are usually inexperienced players and the pots have a decent amount of callers:

1. Tight players can restrict themselves too much when the game is really good because of odds. In a decent sized pot with bad players, you should consider a single flop bet to be negligible. Your number one priority is to give yourself as many opportunities to win as possible, without going overboard. If you play good cards in good spots, when you draw, error on the side of a little too loose than a little too tight.

2. The worse the players play postflop, the more you should call with your weak draws. Some limit holdem games (usually live ones, not online) it isn't uncommon to see four or five way action on the turn with multiple bets. It doesn't take many of those pots to have a decent day. These are the games where it makes sense to call to see the turn with just about any hand you saw the flop with (if you have a gutshot draw on the flop, any pair, overcards, etc).

3. The best places to draw in holdem are either before the bettor, or in late position. If your goal is to get free cards, then being in late position is best. Say you have 55 and there are 4 opponents who all called the under-the-gun player's preflop raise. He bets and everyone calls. You call. It's best to be able to act last because you don't have to commit multiple bets if someone check raises the preflop raiser; you get to see everyone move first. Also, your call in the back can scare players enough to check to you on the turn (since you are perceived as a tighter player). The best place to be to make money by building the biggest pot is to be immediately before the bettor. Say in the hand above, you had the 55 in the big blind instead of the button. You have the ideal position to check raise the most players, assuming the initial preflop raiser bet.

4. Memorize the odds of different draws and put them in groups. Then associate each group with a size of pot that you should call for: tiny, regular/medium, huge. Then when you are playing you can just think, "this is a medium size pot, I'll call with this on the flop, but no further." Or you think, "this a small pot...not worth drawing in with my overcards." Or sometime like, "this is a massive pot, I'll see the turn even if it costs me a couple bets with this gutshot draw...I may even be correct to see the river too."

Here is an example of a hand: $3/6 game.

Preflop: 4 limpers = $12.

Flop: 3 callers = $21 6:1 on the money for a draw (easy decision to call)

Turn: 1 caller = $27 ~3:1 on the money for a draw (your draw will hit ~5:1, which means you need to get a couple more $6 bets in there to make it worthwhile strictly by the numbers).

The flop bet was an easy call. The turn bet got a little tougher to figure out, but we see that calling is still correct, even if our only chance of winning is by completing the draw. Chances are that if you have a draw, you will be able to check raise an opponent with a better hand at some point on one of the big betting rounds. And if the opponent didn't have a check raising hand, then chances are that you have more outs than just your draw. What if the pot isn't as large as the example above? What if you only have one opponent? This gets murky, but still points to playing your draw. The odds aren't what they were with more players in, but with only one opponent, the likelihood of you having extra outs goes up.

Also, with only one player standing in between you and the pot, a raise with the draw on the flop and aggressive play afterwards makes sense. Next, in a number of the weaker draws I mentioned above, like calling with bottom or middle pair or with gutshots, you are only going to risk one small bet. If you miss, you can fold and not lose anymore. Sometimes you can use this same strategy for regular draws if you are certain that your opponent has you beat and you don't want draw with a tiny pot. Say you have a nice hand and end up in a pot with a complete rock. You have a draw but you are certain that the opponent has AA or KK. Here, you might just call to see the turn, and then fold if you miss.

So to finish up, in limit holdem, I would recommend playing your flush and straight draws to the river, unless it gets too expensive on the turn to keep calling (having to call two bets cold, for example). In very loose games, I would also recommend calling to see the turn more often as it can have unforeseeable results (in addition to the above there are all kinds of psychological implications that have value, like encouraging other players to loosen up too if they see you calling the flop sometimes). If you do this things in addition to playing strong hands for the number of players in the pot, you will do well.

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