03- 9-05, LearnTexasHoldem:

Short Stack Theory

Question: You're short-stacked in a tournament and you have to make a move soon before you are blinded into inconsequence. Some will go with any paint. But the problem is that unless you've got an inconsequential amount (where doubling up would be like spitting in the ocean), there's a good chance anyone who calls you will have you dominated. An A9 might look great, but there's a good chance your caller will have a better Ace. Even a great hand like KQ is at best only about 45% to win against the weakest of Aces.

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If I am short-stacked, I would rather go all-in with a suited semi-connector such as an 8-5 of Diamonds. Why? Because unless you're against a pair you've got a 40% shot of doubling up. What would you rather have against Big Slick, the suited 8-5 or the much better AQ? The AQ will make you a huge dog. Even a smaller pair is only about 50/50 against two over cards. If you need to double up, 40% to win is not bad odds, certainly better than most people in such a situation find themselves in.

What say you about this theory? I didn't think of it but I like it...

Brian

Answer: There is definitely some logic in that argument. Obviously if you are heads up you prefer any edge you can get -- which you would have if you had say an A9 versus a KQ -- but then again you also don't want to have competing cards that might be dominated. Mike Sexton on the WPT always says, "may your cards be live..." Ideally you would like to have both cards live to draw to.

Most of the time though, you don't have much choice in when you decide to go all-in if you are short stacked. I would prefer to go all-in when I still have a chance to make a go at the top spot as opposed to be blinded to death; if that means I push in with 85s with twice as much money as I would with A9, then sobeit -- especially if I can get multiple callers.

Lastly, I think that people over estimate how much of an edge you really have if you are 10% up -- even with a 20%+ edge on your opponent heads up, you won't see any difference in the short term. It would take many hands before you began to see the probabilities representing the math. Even if you have 72 versus AK heads up to the river, you aren't that much of an underdog.

Obviously you can't play anyhand at anytime and hope to win but the biggest factor I think when playing a short stack is to get he chips in there before, like you said, it becomes inconsequential. (only exception might be if you are trying to survive another person getting busted to move up a spot in the prize pool...)

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