12- 1-05, LearnTexasHoldem:
Set Hand In A Tourney
Top 3 Beginner Rooms
I was playing an online tournament ($10 buy in) and I was moved to a new table with about $7500 in chips (started with $5000). The blinds were at $100/200 which doubles every half an hour. From what little I saw (about 4 hands in all), there was a mix of loose players (one guy called with a raise and won with J4 suited) and tight players but no real aggressors. In the BB I picked up pocket fives. A middle position player limped in as did the player in cutoff and on the button. The SB folded. I thought about raising here but I didn't want to commit a chunk of my chips (in bad position) if I didn't get a favourable flop so I checked. I felt for sure the middle position limper and the cutoff player would call a raise (loose players). Not sure what the button would have done since I didn't really see the button play much. The flop comes 765 rainbow, giving me a set of fives.
Since any one of the two loose players could have anything I didn't want to give them the opportunity to outdraw my set so I made about a pot size bet of $800.
The middle position player folded. The player in cutoff moved all-in for about $2200. I felt he might have hit top pair and was protecting his hand. The button thought for a second and moved all-in as well for about $7000 which had me covered. Now I haven't seen the button play many hands but I felt he might have hit the straight. Of course he could have hit a bigger set as well but I figured if he had a pocket pair, he would have raised since he had position.
Although I wasn't getting the right price to call vs a straight, but I decided to gamble (hoping he was on the draw) and hoping the board would pair. The player in cutoff turned over J7 unsuited and the button turned over 43 unsuited for the bottom end of a straight. The turn and river were blanks and I was out. In hindsight, I think I made two mistakes.
First, I should have raised pre-flop but I find that in these small buy-in tournaments, there are too many loose and strange calls which makes hand reading a difficult task and bluffing nearly impossible as they will call you down if they connect with the board especially when the blinds are low. Second, I felt the button had the straight or at least had a hand that had me beat (as a second all-in bet should have indicated) but at the same time, I don't want to get pushed around by every guy on a potential draw either.
What would you have done?
Thanks in advance,
Glen
Answer:
I would have called. Whenever you look at a hand and how you should play it, look at what the potential outcomes may be. Here is what we know so far:
1. The random loose player is pretty much dead money. He may have an open-ended draw, but you are certainly ahead right now.
2. The third player's raise means he also has a strong hand. I think the two most likely cards he would hold are either two pair or possibly a straight. I wouldn't assume a straight right off the bat though. Why would he go all-in right now if he did have the nuts? I would think if he had the nuts he would call and try to suck you both in. Going all-in immediately seems kind of weak, like he is trying to protect his hand; it turns out that is exactly what he was thinking, since he didn't want to get drawn out by a larger straight. A set over set is possible but so unlikely that I don't worry about it.
3. If someone doesn't have a straight already, you have the best hand. And even if you are behind now, you can easily improve to the best hand with 10 outs. Ten outs with two cards to come is close to 40%. So even if the guy did have the nuts now, it is pretty much a coin flip.
4. This is a monster pot. You aren't going even money for the coin flip (if you are in fact behind), you are getting more.
So the two outcomes are either you are a little behind right now with a big return on your money to try and improve to the best hand, or you are ahead and they are trying to catch you. Both outcomes are favorable. Folding here isn't right. Another way of looking at is that at in every tournament, the leader will inevitably have to play a big pot for lots of chips. How else do you become the leader? Big pots have to be won. This was your shot for this tourney and either you'll get knocked out or have a nice stack to work with. Granted this is a scary board; that alone isn't enough to make you lay down your set though.
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