Learn Texas Holdem

Question: Hi, I really wanted to ask you a question since you have lots more experience than I. How common is it to get bad cards for an extended length of time?

I'm going through a patch right now where, with my last 35 pocket pairs (I only know this because I've been using Poker Tracker) I've hit a set exactly zero times. Twice I've had KK only to have an ace flop both times. I've had AA only to have two kings fall on the flop. The only ray of hope was a hand I didn't play. I called a raise of $1.75 preflop with 44 only to have the BB raise it to $9 with his JJ (at a .25/.50 table). Of course I couldn't call that raise and left only to watch two fours flop, which would've gave me quads.

The only "good" hand I had was AJ and flopping a straight, only to chop it with another AJ. I've been through a bad run of cards before, but this seems extraordinarily weird (particularly the flops, where I can't seem to get lucky to save my life). My biggest winning pot during this period has been $5.90, and I had to bluff at that one to get it (and I rarely bluff but I was becoming a bit desperate by that point).

Upping my aggression and trying to steal pots here and there probably would've helped curtail the losses each session, but I'm ashamed to say that I was probably a little cowed by the lack of luck I've been getting lately and have probably not been playing the best poker of my life. Instead I sat back, called the raises with my pocket pairs (and was even a bit wary of doing that after awhile, being pretty sure I wasn't going to hit a set, though I did continue to do it), and continued to lose money in small chunks each day.

This string of bad cards began exactly the same day I withdrew some money that I'd previously won. Right now I'm trying to just put that up to coincidence and I'm hoping you can confirm that runs like this are indeed common. I play smaller sessions so I know that 3 of my sessions might be equal to only one of someone else's, so it's possible that I just haven't had a big enough base of hands during these sessions to truly say I'm getting unlucky yet. I'm still winning money at the site despite the string of losing sessions (9/10), but this being my first withdrawal from this particular site, you can understand how I'm curious about whether I should be concerned or not.

Thanks for your time.

Answer:

Yes, having runs of bad cards is very common. Everyone who plays will encounter it to some degree. How long a run of bad cards can last depends on a few things. The first factor is how well you play. It sounds obvious to point out that the better you play the less run of bad luck you'll have, but it isn't. For example, there is a player who I know who has played professionally for years and he plays very tight -- too tight for the games actually. He is a winner, but doesn't win as much as he could if he played a few more cards at the right times. Because of this, when he has had a downswing, I think it has lasted much longer than someone else.

He said once that he went through a period of not winning for three months (having played 4 or 5 times/day). That seems a little drastic to me, but who knows. The flip side of this is that if you play too loosely, it will also make winning harder, and no matter what cards you get, chances are that you won't do well. The second thing that factors into the length of your bad cards is how often you play. If you are just comparing total time, then someone who plays once a week could potentially have a bad 6 months, compared to someone who plays almost daily. The third factor is the type of game you play in.

Generally speaking, the more loose and crazy the game is, the more money you make in the long run, but the bigger volatility/swings you'll have. You may go for a couple weeks getting hammered, then kill the game for a week and be up huge. I read once in a book written by a poker author who is heavily influenced by math state that a pro playing regular hours could potentially have a downward swing of up to six months because of the variance in the game and the pro's edge. That doesn't seem realistic to me.

It may be true, but I'm guessing it would be an extreme. In my experience, running bad usually lasts at max a couple weeks, and usually it ends up lasting longer because of the way I end up playing as a result of the initial losing. (This would be for cash games. In tournaments obviously you don't expect to win very often.)

One tip that I give people sometimes when they are in ruts is that just because you are getting certain hands, playable but weaker hands, you don't have to play them. In your question above you mentioned how many small pocket pairs you've been getting lately. I've found that when I'm running badly, it sometimes makes sense to tighten up some and just win a few hands before playing hands that need to improve on the flop to win.

Now, obviously the math of hitting a set with 44 doesn't change regardless of whether you're running well or not, but math isn't the only variable in poker. Psychologically it can weigh on you if you keep missing flops and getting ground down. Think about what makes up a winning day in cards. If your day consists of nothing but small pairs and suited connectors, hands that need to hit big flops to win, chances are you won't do well most of the time. When you aren't running well, pull back a bit on these kinds of hands, just so you avoid going on tilt more. I guarantee you it will help because your chips won't be going up and down so much.

The danger of running badly for an extended amount of time isn't that you'll lose your money as a result of the bad luck. The real danger is what effect it will have on your game. You can go into long bouts of tilt where you end up giving away the farm because the tilt is causing you to lose your anchor -- the strategy that allows you to win.

It's easy to start playing a horrible game because nothing seems to be working, which in turn causes you to lose more, and the spiral begins. What you should be thinking when heading into play again after losing a few sessions is this, "I'm going to go in and play a solid game. I'm not going to try to create opportunities that aren't there. And if things aren't going well, then a close second to winning is to minimize my loss. I'm content with a small loss." This takes the pressure off. In cards you shouldn't try to win.

Contrast thinking that you want to win three racks when you play a session with thinking you just want to go in and play as well as the cards allow that day. Winning is a product of playing well. You can't force it. Somedays the cards won't allow you to win. The difference between an expert and a novice is that the expert won't lose a lot on these days and the novice will give back everything they earned the previous day (or more). Remember the axiom: Everyone has good days, it is the bad days that define you as a player. See, any monkey can win when the deck is hitting them in the face, it's those tough days that set you apart.

There are things you can learn from these periods, important lessons that will make you a stronger player:

1. Getting value on your hands. Often time when we run well and are winning pot after pot, it seems easy and we put it into autopilot. It's in these times when you can easily miss bets and not make as much money as you should on your hands, since you take the approach that you are already winning so much you'll just not bet this river, for example. When you are in a losing period, each pot really begins to take on new light and you realize how imperative it is to make the most with your winning hands. It isn't always going to be great, so maximize those hands.

2. Minimizing your loss. I mentioned this above already. Minimizing your losses is important so that each win you have actually counts. Being in a bad streak of cards tests you and should teach you how to not give it all back when things aren't going your way, or when they are.

3. Staying positive. Pride yourself on losing only a little when it seems like nothing is going right. Remember, the wins will come. That's not the hard part. The hard part is not losing a lot when you aren't doing well. And if that is true, then not losing a ton on a bad day should be something you are really happy about, more so than a win. This goes to always focusing on the positive and striving to play well, and not focusing so much on the ups and downs. You ask yourself the question, "did I play well today?" And that answer is the only measurement of whether you are doing well or not, not if you won money or not. Again, the money is a product of playing well.

4. Money management. Money management in this context would be how you deal with runs of bad luck while keeping yourself in action. One method of money management is to drop down in limits if you are losing a few sessions at a larger limit, so that you prevent yourself from that catastrophic loss that may happen if you start tilting at your regular limit. That down swing also teaches you that it isn't correct to base your win rate only on your good days. You have to take into account all the days you lose too. Won money isn't really yours until the variance corrects itself. You may have a great streak of cards for a while, but then chances are that the probabilities will realize and it will pull back some of your winnings to something more realistic. That's just part of it.