03-31-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
Reply To: No Limit Holdem Sets vs. Flushes...
I am a constant reader of your website and learned a lot from it. I have a comment about your post on 3/29/06 "No Limit Holdem - Sets vs Flush Draws/Top Pair Top Kicker" in Questions/Comments section . I actually had the exact same problem since I play in a lot of low limit online sit 'n go NL Hold'em tourneys. I do not agree with the part in which you said " Now if you bet again (on the turn) and the player plays back at you with a big raise or an all-in, then you'll need to think hard about what it means and if you still have the best hand".
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The problem is that bad players do not know the value of their hands well enough so you can not get a valid information with betting at them and them playing back at you. Like this time I had JJ preflop, I raise, one player calls, flop comes "3 5 9" I bet he calls turn comes another 9, I bet he goes all in. I evantually folded and he showed 3 5 to show that he was not bluffing!! He did not even know that he does not have two pair anymore. Or the other time in the first level of blinds (10/20) I raise with AK preflop and get one caller, flop comes KQJ I bet the caller goes all in with $1300 on a $300 pot!! of course I fold and he shows K 5 off suit!
For me, the only way to win in these tourneys is to steal blinds when the blinds go up and accumulate chips this way ,otherwise, it is almost impossible to play postflop with these players, especially in the early stages, you just do not know where you stand and whereyour opponent is at. Anyways, that was just my comment on your answer to that question.
Thanks a lot for your website again.
Reza
Answer:
Poker strategy is very situational. When you read my tips/comments here, always keep in the back of your mind that these are just general concepts that you need to consider. For every "rule" there is an exception and as you move up to bigger games, most of what you are doing is trying to figure out what logic to apply when. I agree with your assessment that if the opponents are so bad that they themselves don't know the strength of their own hands, then you'll need to make a stand more often. But that wasn't the point of the article. Here are main points that I wanted to emphasize:
1. If you have the initiative (you are the bettor) and someone doesn't play back at you on the flop, then there is no reason to think that your hand isn't good -- my advice for him not checking the turn.
2. Having the initiative in a hand is useful because not only do you get value on your hand but it can also help you make easier reads when someone raises. This is true for everyone. If you check and the opponent bets, that bet could mean anything. Generally speaking, a raise on the turn after you've bet means the opponent is more likely to have a strong hand than if you just checked and he bet. It is much harder to run a bluff if you have to raise someone than it is to just bet since the opponent already has chips in the pot, suggesting he/she has something, as well has having pot equity.
Now there are a million exceptions to what I just wrote, so it is important to keep it in the context of the original question. Many times on this site have I suggested the opposite course of action for getting value on a hand, like tips on being more deceptive in tough games by not playing a hand as aggressively. That would be correct sometimes, this would be correct sometimes. Generally speaking, deception is not a big factor in games where the opponents are weak since they are likely to call you with worse hands, so being more forthright with your betting is correct -- bet the turn again with the AQ. Lastly, it is important to also put the opponent's play into context (which I touched on some in the other answer). A raise doesn't mean the same thing from every player and you should adjust to that. One guy might raise any two cards or run bluffs way too often. Against him you should call. Another player may be tight as hell so his/her raise is something to fear. Thanks for the question Reza!
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