11-29-04, LearnTexasHoldem:

Quick Odds Calculation Method

Question: I have been hosting a lot of home tournaments with 40-50 players in the tourney. Buy-in is around $50, so we were getting some average to good players in there. I have made it to the final table and in the money in more than 95% of those, but recently I started just having some friends over to play in small 10-12 people $20 buy-in tournaments. We have couples come out and whoever (most are TV watchers of the game). I have been busted out of those games so fast it is not even funny. Problem is that I am not adjusting my game to the table. I have been so use to playing good players, where my situational bluffs work, that I did not stop and think "is this bluff really going to work or is this loose drunk opponent going to call anyway". Anyway, I read your section on "home game play" and I am anxious to apply some of those techniques. First and foremost "have fun", play a little looser as to get more action and keep the game enjoyable, and reduce or eliminate the bluffing.

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What I was really sending you was something I learned from a guy at one of the big tourneys I hold. He taught me how to calculate hand odds quickly.

What you do is this - (outs *2) + 1 = percentage. So if you have 8 outs (open ended straight draw) then (8 * 2) + 1 = 17%. I realize that this changes from turn to river, but it is a good quick guide. Your site shows this at 34%, but that is because you are calculating hitting the hand by the river (2 draws). This is just a quick calculate for the next draw. If there was a flush potential also then 8 (open ender cards) + 9 (flush cards remaining) - 2 (remove the 2 flush cards that also complete your straight....they were adding in with the 8) = 15 outs or 31%.

Let me know if this does not work out, but I have been using this and following the WPT % that they show on TV and it is usually within 1 or 2 %.

Thanks,

Tom

Answer:

That sounds like it is approximately right (which is all you need). You can also use the 4/2 rule that I have mentioned here before. You just multiply the outs by 2 for one card and 4 if you are seeing both the turn and river. Thanks for sending this in. Let me finish up by saying that odds calculations just need to be fairly accurate; they don't have to be exact. Most of the time the margin of victory or error is going to be wide enough that there is a clear answer. In hands where you are so unsure that you are figuring the call down to a percentage point, you would be better off at looking at other things for guidance in what to do.

Also, you mentioned that you were having trouble playing against some of the other players because they were less skilled than you are accustomed to. That is perfectly normal. This weekend I found myself in a situation similar to yours: the players were really weak and passive. I'm not use to playing in games where people just cold call with AK behind my late position raise and just check and call the whole way to the river. I found myself down a rack quickly after putting some aggressive plays in that were typical in the games I usually play. I also paid off some hands that I shouldn't have because I was assuming people were playing tricky poker instead of just straight forward tight play.

I quickly changed my style though to accommodate them and I played until I was up a couple racks and left. It is good that you are able to recognize when people are playing weakly and when they are capable of putting in a move here and there. Against really weak players, I end up having to play a very straight forward tight game where I just bet when I have hands and check when I don't. There is nothing wrong with that and it does work; it's just another tool you have in arsenal.

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