03-10-05, LearnTexasHoldem:

Pot Odds Tips

Question: I have enjoyed many of your articles and have learned many useful tips to improve my game. I am mostly a beginner who play for small amounts with other couples. I have played on the computer for the last six months and lost on a regular basis until I started reading your sites. Now I will usually break even in the sit and goes.

Top 3 Beginner Rooms

My question is this: When figuring pot odds, how do you quickly figure how much is in the pot. Do you keep track of it as you go or do you estimate when it is your turn. I don't like taking too much time to figure this out when it is a friendly game.

My second question is to clarify the 2/4 rule. If I have Ace 8 h and the flop is queen h 5h 3d. My outs are 9 h's and 3 aces for a total of 12 outs. To hit 4th st. I have about a 24% chance and to the river I have about a 48%. Lets say the pot size is $100 and it will cost me $25 or less to stay, do I stay, what if it will cost me $75 to stay to see 4th st. I want to make sure I am calculating this properly.

Thanks

Alway a rookie.

Answer: Thanks for the question. First of all, let's go over math for specific odds. Using the 2/4 rule, we can see that indeed you have around a 48% chance of hitting your draw by the river. To make this example simple, let's say the person you are against is going all-in. The reason we are setting the example up in this way is because then we can avoid talking about things like how much money you might make in addition to what is in the pot, if you could bust him out, etc. With 14 or 15 outs, if you call till the river you are even money. Should you call if the player bets $25 all-in? Should you call if he bets $50 all-in? How much would you be willing to call with considering your draw?

To figure these questions out, we just compare our return to our risk. If our risk is even to our return, then we break even, if our return is more than our risk, we make money. If the person bets $25 into a $100 pot, you are getting 25/125 return on your chance of hitting. Your $25 investment divided by the pot ($100) plus his bet of $25. Since you have around a 50% chance to win and 25/125 equals 20%, you are getting a great return on the investment. You call. We compared 25/125 to 48/100 (return to your risk)

If the guy bets $50, do you call? Now you have your 50% chance of winning compared to 50/150 (your investment divided by his bet plus the pot size). 50% is greater than 33% so again you have a good spot to call in. 50/150 compared to 48/100

How much can he bet to make it even money against you? In other words you only break even in the long run. To calculate that, you can use this equation:

x = his bet

x/(pot + x) = your % of winning

x/(100 + x) = your % of winning

x/(100 + x) = .48

x = 48 + .48x

.52x = 48

x = 92

He would have to bet ~$92 into a $100 with your draw to make it break even -- anymore he bet would skew the odds against you so it wouldn't be worth calling ( if our only consideration is the odds). And to make sure our math is right, we just compare the two fractions like we did above: 92/192 should be about equal to our 48/100

Now nobody is going to go through all these equations in their head when playing and try to figure out down to the cent if it is worth while to call. I just did this so you could get an idea for the math behind your decisions -- the relationship between risk and reward. For all intents and purposes, you can just round off the numbers to make quicker decisions. Round 48% to 50. 50/100 is a 1/2 which is a 1:1. A 1:1 means that he can bet as much as in the pot and I'll get the right return. If he bets $100 into a $100 pot, if I call $100, I'll get even money. If he bets less, I make money, and if he bets more, I lose money in the long run.

In limit holdem, calculating odds usually isn't quite of a difficulty because most of the time the pot is laying you very good odds for draws. If you have an open-ended draw or a flush draw, most of the time it is a nobrainer to call. In no limit holdem though, it becomes harder because you have additional factors to include. The first major issue for draws in no limit -- if you decide to merely call -- is what are you going to do on the turn card if you miss? Will you call now with only around half the chance that you had before, putting more money into the pot?

See in no limit holdem, you need to not only pay attention to what the current bet will cost you, but also what the total cost for the hand might be. Most of the time if the person bets on the turn card, it will be in relation to the pot size which means it will be much larger than the initial flop bet.

The next factor playing in to whether you should play your draw or not is what is the upside? Implied odds matter in limit holdem too but in no limit the amount you can win with one hand is much greater. Does the person have a lot of chips? Are you likely to be able to trap them for more money if you hit? Is your draw obvious so even if you hit, you aren't likely to get more money if you bet? Sometimes, factors such as these, make the odds a gray area.

As you progress, you'll have an easier time judging how much you might be able to win with a hand based on the texture of the flop, the opponents, etc. Next, how you play draws in NL holdem tournaments changes too. Often times good players will have the odds to draw for a hand, but they won't because it will risk too many chips at that point in the game. They would much prefer to wait for an opportunity when they have something and are forcing someone else to still catch. A made hand is always better than a drawing hand, even if the drawing hand in the long run will have the edge because in tournaments, you don't have a chance to buy-in again.

To finish up, let me give an example of a hand in a no limit cash game that ties into what I mentioned above. I have 46 in the BB. One person limps in, another person raises only doubling the big blind. I call. The other person calls. The flop comes back A - 3 - 7. The pot is currently $300. I check, the other guy checks and the raiser now bets. What am I thinking about? Is my only thought, "I have a gutshot draw and what is the bet in relation to how much is in the pot?" No, I'm also thinking about how many chips the guy has and if this is an opportunity if the right card hits I might bust him for everything he has.

The more chips he has, the better. My chance of hitting the gutshot on the turn is around 8% (using our 2/4 rule -- 4 outs X 2). If the guy had $1000+ stack and I figured he caught an Ace, or had another good hand, I might call him for even a $100 bet. I would especially make this play if the guy was new and I saw that he was waiting all day for hands. I figure that either he has AK, AQ or an underpair. If I call the flop and hit on the turn, I might bust him completely.

Also, my call on the flop might scare him enough to make him give me a free card on the turn, which might give me a chance to hit on the river and win with a small pair or the straight. See the odds were not the only consideration in my thought process for calling or not. I had to take into account the player, his/her stack, the chance of it trapping (a flush draw obviously doesn't trap as well as a small straight), the other players in the hand, etc.

Your rating:

Click on the clover of your choice

User Rating: (1 Votes)

  • Share on Facebook
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us