Learn Texas Holdem

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Answer: First of all, let's do a quick summary of pot odds and what it means in holdem. Sometimes in poker you have the best hand, for example you might have a pair of Aces, while other times in holdem you have a drawing hand that needs to catch a card to win. Drawing hands can range a lot. You have draws that get there a fair amount of the time -- openended straights and flush draws are two examples:

Open Ended Straight Draw:

Your hand - QJ

Flop - T-9-4

--- K or 8 gives you straight (8 outs, cards that complete your hand)

Regular Flush Draw:

Your hand - Ah4h

Flop - Th - 9h - 4s

--- any heart gives you flush (9 outs)

Then you can have draws that are longer shots, such as:

Your hand 54

Flop - A-Q-5

--- 5 or 4 gives you two pair or trips (5 outs)

Your hand JT

Flop - A-Q-5

--- K gives you nut straight (4 outs)

So the question is, how do I know when I should call and when I should muck? There are a number of considerations that go into this, but the focus here is on odds. If we consistently put in too much money into hands that aren't giving a good enough return, we will eventually lose; an example might be if we are putting in $50 to win back only $200 on a draw that hits 1 out of 10 times; we will be big time losers. Obviously, hands that have more outs are better draws and don't need as much money in the pot to make our investment sound.

The smaller chance our draw will hit, the more money we need in the pot to justify the play. The question here was, "how do I add up the money in the pot to make the decision whether to continue with my draw?" Before I answer that question, we need also talk some about implied odds. Implied odds refers to the amount of additional money you might win if you hit your hand. Let me give you an example of this to make it clear: You have a flush draw, there is some money in the pot already. If you hit your draw, do you think everyone will just fold? Most likely not. Most likely you'll make another good sized bet from them if you hit. That extra money is implied odds. When we calculate if we should draw or not, we need to figure in not only what is currently in the pot, but also what we might win if we hit. This is a more generous number.

In the question posed above, yes you would add up all the bets currently made (including those in this betting round). So if the pot already had $7 in it, we add in the other three $3 bets making the total pot $16. Now we compare our risk to return. There is $16 in the pot and are asked to put in another $3 for a chance to win it. If you only call till the turn, you have around 18 or 19% chance to hit your flush. The pot odds are laying you that already, to say nothing of the money you might win if you catch. You call.

Before I finish here, I want to mention that in most circumstances, you don't have to calculate pot odds or anything. In most hands, when you have a regular draw like a flush draw on the flop (four to the flush) or an openended straight draw, you'll have the odds to call -- this is true even if the hand is only 3 way or even heads up. In limit holdem, if you have these draws, you're going to the river automatically. I don't want you to think that all pros are constantly crunching numbers in their heads, because that isn't true. Most of the time the hands play themselves but if they are faced with a tough decision, they will make an estimate based on the odds.

In no limit holdem, things are a little murkier and the reason is because the implied odds can be so high. An expert player in no limit holdem might give up some odds on the flop by making a call going against the numbers because if the draw does hit, the expert could potentially break the other player -- bust them out for all their chips. So if you are playing no limit holdem, part of your consideration for whether to draw or not is based largely on the opponent and your guess as to how much you can extract from them if you hit. If I know a particular player is easily trapped, I'll try to hit gutshots against them more, or weird low cards, just because if I hit once, they are done; I have their entire stack. I wouldn't make this play against someone with few chips or who wouldn't pay me off, because the implied odds wouldn't be there.

Lastly, to ease your mind a little more, there is quite a bit of gray area in "correct" odds. No one ever mentions this concept (at least not that I've heard): There is a difference between theoretical probability and empirical probability in short term results. Let me give you an example to clear this up. Let's say you have a hand that, according to the math, should beat your opponent's hand 65% of the time and he should beat you 35% of the time. What do you think will happen if we do this hand once? How about ten times? How about a thousand times? My guess is that it would take at least 100 times before the numbers showed that you would beat him around 65 to 35. If you do it just once, it is anyone's game.

The point is that in the short term, the edges get rounded and there is more gray area. What is important is that you always strive to be on the correct end of the numbers, screwing them, not getting screwed, but if you miss it by a few percent, it doesn't matter.

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