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For instance, I hold two hearts, and two hearts come on the flop. In an ideal world, that's 9 outs for me with two shots to get those outs. The probably chart says that's a 39% chance to complete. The quick count method would say -> 9 outs * 2 opportunities = 18 * 2 + 1 = 37%. I'll call a decent number of bets with a 1:3 chance of a flush.

But if there are 8 other people at the table, each holding two hole cards, that's 16 cards, which probability tells me means 4 hearts. So should I really consider there are only 5 outs for me? That's down to a 21% chance. Now at 1:5 I'm not so confident about calling.

Should this logic apply for other outs as well (though they would be harder to calculate than flushes)?

John

Answer: I answered another question like this a while back but I'll just answer it again instead of looking up the page.

It is true that if all the cards you need for your draw are in other people's hands or in the muck pile your actual potential for completing the hand is skewed/screwed. The problem with that logic though is that there is no way for you to predict what other players have in their hand or have folded. Because of this cloudiness, we have to rely strictly on math.

Math says that there is exactly the same chance of someone having the Ace of spades as the Ace of diamonds (or any other card for that matter). So it is acceptable to calculate odds based on unseen cards without taking into account what people folded or are holding themselves because the odds of them having your cards or any other cards are the same.

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