02-28-06, LearnTexasHoldem:

On The Bubble Hand

Question: Situation - Live tournament in a northern Minnesota casino. Buy-in was $150, started with 170 players and we are down to sixteen players at two tables of eight. The tourney is paying 15 players, so we are on the bubble. 10-15 get $150, 9th $200, 8th $400 and on up to $9,500 for first. Blinds are $4,000 and $8,000 with $400 antes. Total chips in play $850,000, so average stack is about $53,000. There are a couple of big stacks at the other table, but most guys are near the average, and no-one at our table has $100K. I have $36,000 after posting the $400 ante and the small blind. Pot is $15,200. All fold around to me.

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I have A8 off-suit. The big blind, a player about 25 years old, has just been seated at this table four hands ago and I have no read on him one way or the other ... he hasn't bet on a hand yet. He hasn't seen me do anything either. He has about $55,000. There is one short stack at the table that will be blinded away when he hits the big blind in four hands. There is a similar short stack at the next table also. I came to finish high or win, not just eke into the money.

I raised all-in. He called me with AT and I'm dominated. A ten comes and I'm out of the tourney as the bubble boy. Did I make the correct play? I thought I made a good mathematical call, but perhaps a poor strategic call.

Answer:

Thanks for the question, Jim. I'm just going to list my thoughts below:

- on the bubble play usually means that you won't be playing as risky, regardless of whether you're 'in it to win it', or just to place in the money. This is especially true if you can see that someone else is near to blinding out.

- you are in the small blind, meaning you've already paid your blinds and you'll have some time. Also, you have a decent amount of chips to work with still.

- your opponent in the BB has you covered. Now, if the guy in the big blind didn't have as many chips as you, I would be much more in favor of the play, since him potentially getting busted out on the hand may make him fold some hands that you wouldn't want him to call with. Also, if you were wrong, you wouldn't get busted out on the hand either. Because of the situation, this decision is for your tournament life.

- just as a general, I would be less likely to try this type of play against a younger guy than someone else, reason being this is confrontational and you may get looked up by hands that you would prefer he folds, just because he feels challenged -- which brings me to my next point.

- A8 isn't that big of a favorite over any hand. Even if the guy had a hand like QJ or KJ or KT or even T9, you aren't that much of a favorite. Is this really the time you want to push a hand where you may only be a slight favorite? Even if he had a hand like 77 or 55 or even 33 you would only be a coin flip.

- whenever you raise, you have to ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish and if that raise is the best move suited to the goal. Obviously your goal here is to pick up this pot because it is 15k and only one player stands between you and it. If you raise all-in here, can you force him off a hand? And if he has a hand that is drastically worse, do you want to force him off of it?

- you have a fair amount of chips but even if he calls your raise and loses, he will still have close to 20k left. Because of that, I think there is a good chance he may call you with a number of hands that for all intents and purposes puts you in a coin flip situation. Say he even has QJoff, if he calls, you'll be 56% to 44%. On one hand, that's pretty much a coin toss.

- the major problem is your chips aren't big enough to raise and not get committed, yet they aren't enough to really push anyone off a hand. So your options are basically to either go all-in or limp in, and most likely miss the flop and have to fold when he bets. Neither of those options are ideal, which brings me to my last point.

- there are situations in cards, like in other games, when your back is up against the wall and you have to make a move, yet no move is great; no clear answer. This seems like one of those situations. If you limp in, chances are you'll just lose some more chips after you miss the flop. Sure you'll live to the next hand, but you'll always wonder if that was the crucial hand that you should have been more aggressive in. And if you are going to get busted out, I think it is better to adopt the philosophy of dying facing the enemy, meaning fighting/betting. If you raise all-in, chances are if you get called you'll be in a bad spot, coin flip at best. But I don't think you can really fold A8 vs the BB.

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