06- 1-05, LearnTexasHoldem:
Odds And Calling With Losing Hands
As an example, just recently I was playing a hand online and I was holding KQs. It was a 1$ big blind table. There are no raises preflop when it gets to me at the position before the button so I raise 1$. Everyone that was in the hand calls and flop comes 333. Checks all around. Turn comes Q, and it checks all around. River comes K and it checks around to me, so I bet 5$. Everyone folds but one guy, who re-raises me 15$. At this point I'm thinking maybe he has a set of 3's but I felt like it was a total bluff. I call and he shows me K3 off suit and takes down the pot. I'm not really sure if I played that poorly, with 25$ in the pot and I having to call 15$ to win it the pot odds weren't good but I felt like it was a bluff and felt like I probably had the best hand with 2 pair.
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I thought perhaps what was meant by this statement was if the pot is laying 6:1 (30$ in, 5$ to call) and you have atleast the 6th best hand give it a call, but maybe I am just trying to make sense of something I don't understand.
Any help is appreciated on this subject.
Guy
Answer: I think what you are referring to is the idea in game theory that states it is sometimes correct to call with a losing hand in big pots because it doesn't have to take many winners to turn a profit. You gave a good example: the pot is laying 6:1 and you are only having to put in $5 to call. If you have a 6:1 chance to win, you should call. The question you gave is: How do I know my odds? That is a very tough question to answer concretely because it is so situation specific.
First of all, no pro can always put you on the exact hand you have. What usually happens is they have a very good idea of whether they are beat or not, and then only will make a crying call if they think there is a decent chance you also may have a hand they can beat. These hands don't come up often. Most of the time the information is clear as to whether you are ahead or not. If it is a close call and you don't know, you aren't losing much by just making the call.
Let me give an example of my thought process to get a more realistic idea of this concept. It is a limit holdem game, big multi-way action pot, capped preflop... I miss my flush or straight draw and am left heads up on the river with the preflop raiser. Instead of catching my flush or straight, I catch a little pair, like 7s. The board doesn't have an Ace or King. He bets again. What I am thinking right now is the pot is huge (I don't need to know the exact amount) and that all I have to do is beat one player to take it. Most likely I am beat, but losing one big bet here on the end isn't a big deal, but losing the entire pot would be, so I call.
I think it would be more helpful for the poker authors to give more general rules instead of making it sound like a math problem. When the pot is big and you are heads up, you have to pay more hands off on the end.
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