06-16-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
Observations From A Bad Streak
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You taught me the ABC of poker, the advanced studies, how luck works and how one should think and feel about poker. I hate normal 9 to 5 work and thanks to you I have found something that allows me to fulfill the goal I've had since I was 10 years old: Make money, live comfortably and not having to do anything I don't like.
Thank you.
Well, I have some observations from my current bad streak. I've been thinking about these things before but now a little more than before.
1) Thinking I got unlucky when I really just played horrible poker.10 handed 1/2 NL hold'em game. I have AK UTG sitting one seat from the player first to act. Here's what happens in short:I open to $7. A middle position player (Lasbru) calls. BB (Doctor) reraises to $24. I call and Lasbru calls. Flop comes K-7-4 rainbow. Doctor checks, I check and Lasbru checks. Turn is a Q making a board of K-7-4-Q. Doctor checks, I bet $24 and Lasbru folds. Doctor calls. River is an 8 for a board of K-7-4-Q-8. Doctor checks, I bet $30, Doctor re-raises all-in for my remaining $62 and I call. I show him AK, he shows me QQ, I drop my jaw, he drops me out of the game.
So what happened here. Looks like I took a bad beat. No, I didn't. I made some incredible mistakes in the hand.
1. Calling with AK. I don't know if I'm live but I know I'll have to hit. If I hit and I'm good, I probably won't get much more action. However, I have been playing the past couple weeks exceptionally aggressive and Doctor has adapted to it, cause he's a familiar, strong player who won't be pushed around. So I'm ok calling here with position since I could be up against a hand other than AA or KK.
2. Checking the flop. I got my dream flop but I'm thinking two things. If I bet, I might run into Lasbru's set (Lasbru is also a familiar player and I was certain he had a pair going into the flop knowing his style). But as we know, we don't fear unlikely strong hands until we have some evidence of them. We bet and take control and slow down if we must. I was also thinking that if I bet, I might make both of my opponents fold. But there was alredy $73 in the pot making me about $50 in net winnings. I should be glad taking that without a fight. But first and foremost, I have just one pair and I have to bet to see whether that's good and to get rid of a hand that might draw out or make it pay.
3. Betting the $30 on the river after he checks. This is just an incredible mistake and I can't understand what made me do it. What could my opponent have? AA, KK, QQ, AK, JJ or TT. These are the hands that he could've reraised with pre-flop out position knowing this particular player. I can beat only two of them and those two won't call my $30, they'll fold. The rest have me beat and they'll check-raise me all-in causing me to lose an additional $100 on the hand. But my thinking on the hand went like this: "He might think I'm making a move and call with JJ or TT. I can't play scared when I probably have the best hand. And I don't think he could've hit a set cause that's a long shot." OMG! I'm hoping. I'm not reading, I'm hoping. I hope he'll call with a bad hand and I hope he didn't hit a miracle. And my fearlessness to bet is totally in the wrong place. The only right thing to do in this particular situation is to check.
Luckily I realized my mistakes almost immediately and I didn't curse my bad luck. The only good thing in the hand (which is actually a bad thing overall) was my weak bet on the turn. Normally turn betting in NL Hold'em has to be strong or not done at all. Here the weak bet actually gave me a chance to get the hand done cheaply by checking the river but of course I failed to take that chance.
2) Feeling like a by stander during a bad run of cards.
This isn't the first bad run of cards I'm getting. Nowadays when this happens I'm starting to feel like a bystander, just watching as things happen. I play my hands the same way I normally do except for a little added tightness because of the bad streak. However, the by stander feeling comes in when all my hands get either beat or I come to a dead end in the hand and have to fold. It turns me into a machine that just plays hand after hand in a predetermined way and actually I'm just waiting for those reraises and beats to come. I've learned to take the worst of beats with calmness. That's not the problem. I know what's going on and why. But exactly because of that I just stare at the game expecting things to go bad.
I think this prevents me from getting off of that bad streak faster.
3) Worrying about making money.
I know I'll win money playing poker. I haven't just gotten lucky up to this point. But still whenever I get to losing I start to worry about my monthly earnings, my bankroll and overall just what's going on. "I beat these guys for a month straight without them beating me one real pot! What's going on? What will this mean to my real life money situation?" I always fear that this is it, now I'm gonna lose enough to have to drop in limits and it'll be ages until I make a profit again. At the same time I keep telling myself that this is normal and there's nothing to worry about.
I just wish I was more effective in making both my brain and my heart to feel that there's no reason to worry.
4) Effects of the bad streak carrying over to when things are normal.
This has already happened to a certain extent. I often find myself thinking other players have stronger holdings then they actually do. I lose some value on my winning hands cause I too often submit to checking the river when I should bet or I force out hands that would've otherwise payed me more. To this I'd like to ask a little advice cause it affects my aggression which obviously is very important. I want to be able to read situations more objectively without past bad beats or coolers affecting my decisions.
Well, here were some thoughts that had been floating in my head concerning the bad run of cards in poker. Again I want to thank you for being such a big
factor in my development as a poker player and in part enabling me to live the life I want.
Thank you,
Johan Engberg.
Answer:
Thank you for sending this in Johan. I'm really happy that you are doing well and have learned because of my info here. I'm also glad that you sent this in because it talks about some parts of poker that are rarely mentioned. Most anything you read is about how to win -- what cards to play, odds, tactics, etc -- while very little has to do with the psychology of the game. As I've matured as a player, my view of what it takes to be a long term winner has also changed. I now put less emphasis on knowing strategy (that's kind of a given) and more emphasis on being able to cope and see the big picture. It takes a certain type of person to be able to handle the variance in this game. I mean you can literally do everything right and still get kicked in the teeth repeatedly. To make it you have to have confidence in your strategy, be playing at the right bankroll and take care of your emotional health. It isn't hard to play well every now and then, once or twice a week. It is very hard to play 3-5 full sessions per week and maintain an A game. The fact that you have been able to digest the strategy and learn the resolve shows me that you have what it takes to do it successfully, at whatever level you work up to.
Now let me make some comments about what you wrote above:
1. The AK vs QQ hand. I think you hit a few good points. What I would add to that is that in no limit holdem, and other structures, aggression is important, but you have to measure it some or it can be counterproductive. Specifically, if you think you have the winning hand in no limit holdem, you never want to bet more than a player can call. You mentioned that important point above. If you bet on the end with one pair in this case, the only hand that can call is one that beats you. You have to careful not to play like that or you'll only get action from better hands. This isn't an extreme case because the pot was so large. A bet of $30 on the end I don't think was horrible considering the size of the pot. To call his reraise all-in was a little weak though. You know more than I do how that player plays, but generally speaking, when a player goes all-in on the river, especially a check raise, with a lot of chips, he has one pair beat. The only hand that might seem half way likely would be AK; you never want to call to chop though.
2. A certain amount of detachment from the game is preferable, or so I've heard, but I've never been able to do it. When you are getting bad beated in every hand or when you are winning every hand, it is hard not to get upset or a high from it. Typically, when you are getting a run of bad cards or bad beats, the tendency is to try and splash around to try and get back what you've lost. You get AJs and think it's a monster, only to end up losing another big hand. You feel like you should win some each day and since you haven't, you are entitled to win with other hands. This is dangerous so I agree with you that when you aren't running well, back off some and only play solid hands. This will also help you to avoid some marginal situations where your objectivity is needed -- and objectivity is the first thing to go when you are on tilt. Next, you have to be careful also to not play scared poker. Scared poker is when you are so beat up that you feel like every hand is going to lose. Psychology has the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy, meaning that if you believe something strongly enough, you can actually make changes in your environment to bring about those fears. Obviously I don't think you have control over the cards, but you can miss bets, call/donk off your money, play hands weakly, and end up losing pots that you would have otherwise won if you weren't so down on things. No one is immune to this. Probably the best advice is if you see yourself playing bad like this, take some time off. Take time off until you don't feel the urge to play. I know how it is. If you take a loss, the first thing you want to do is get up the next day and win it back. That's bad though. You have to wait a bit until you can think clearly again, then you'll win it back.
3. As for worrying about the money and the limits, I understand completely. You work so hard to build your bankroll up to play at a limit and you fear having to take a backwards step. It's tough stuff. One idea that has given me peace in bad streaks is this: Money you win in poker doesn't come in nice incremental amounts. The game works more in surges that can last long periods of time. You can go on a rush for a couple weeks and then have a couple break even or tough weeks. What sets the winners apart from the losers, even for good players, is that when the bad times come around, the winners don't give in. They don't assume they "should" be winning and start trying to make it happen. See your strategy is your rock. It is the objective measure of if you are playing well. If you stick to that, you will win. You have rules that say, for example, "I don't call raises with this hand." When you stick to this you avoid totally losing your head and giving everything you earned back. Look at it this way, K6s will win sometimes, and that "sometimes" will be enough reinforcement for some players to lose in the long run because of it. You can take this to its logical extreme with hands like KT and KJ, etc. The point is that you don't lower your standards just because you aren't getting many good hands. There is an objective strength for a hand and it has nothing to do with how your game is going or if you haven't had a playable hand in a week. One other thing I wanted to mention is a system that some cash pro players use to temper their bad streaks. Basically when they lose at their regular limit, they will win twice at a smaller limit before returning to the bigger game. If they lose at the lower limit, they drop down again. What this does is prevent you from big losses. Losses in poker usually come in streaks, partly because after you've lost two days in a row, that third day you will definitely be rattled and off your game. The low limits buffer you from losing so much cash and also helps you renew your confidence more affordably. Granted it is a hit to your ego, but that necessarily isn't a bad thing. Most of the time ego will get you in trouble with poker.
4. As for the bad streaks carrying over into your game, this is the scared poker I mentioned above. The main thing I would suggest is to rest up. Get away from the table and clear your head. Take a day off, at least. The best measure for me if I'm ready to play well or not is if I don't have that burning urge to "get back at them." Being on tilt is usually talked about only on a session by session basis. In reality, tilt can carry over from one day to the next, or even longer. The only cure I've come up with is just taking a break and not thinking about poker. Also, I think it's important if you are really having a bad streak of cards, or losing for whatever reason, that you go into the next session, not with the intention of winning, but just not losing. Play really tight and prove to yourself that it isn't a discipline problem. Next, it's been my experience that when I'm playing badly after getting beat up, I tend to pay off too many hands and not be aggressive enough with my good hands (like you mentioned) -- a weak passive game. You should just remind yourself every few hands that good poker is aggressive, with folding. Both facets are essential. It is much easier to play winning poker when you use your aggression as a tool, in part to let you know when you are beat so you can fold. You don't pay off every hand that beats you, yet that is the exact temptation you'll be facing. You'll want to play passively and just see showdowns for cheap. That's incorrect. You want to play aggressively, and be able to fold when you think you are beat and jam the pot when you have the winner. Good players will lay down winners sometimes. If you find yourself always seeing the hand that beats you, then you aren't playing tight enough postflop. This would translate into the following outcome for your AK vs QQ. You would bet the turn or river, get raised all-in, think about it a long time and save your money for a better spot. That's good poker. You play strongly until they tell you that your hand is beat, and you listen to them and fold. Let me finish up with an example of how tight aggressive play can help you avoid tough decisions, paying off too much and also maximizing the money you make. Say you raise with JJ and get called in one spot. The flop is Queen high. The best way to play is to bet and see what happens. Checking and calling doesn't do anything because remember, your opponent's play is based in part on your own. He could bet just because you checked, which tells you nothing. When you bet it gives you information. If he raises, that tells you something, if he just calls, that also tells you something. You use this information then to fold or continue. When you play a more passive game it leads to tougher situations. If you check call, then you can give free cards, pay off a Queen too much and not get enough money when you do have the best hand. The key point is that tight play and aggressive play work best together
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