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Play 1:

I have a poket pair, let's say 7-7, and the flop gives me a set and at least one overcard and 2 suited cards, giving someone a flush draw. One opponent goes all-in and he has more chips than i have. I usually know my opponents pretty well and i put him on at least top pair and a flush draw. He has outs.

I know i'm a favorite to win so i always call in this situation. Yes, i win most of the time but i also lose. I'd say i lose a good 35% of the time, taking me out of the tourney when my opponent has more chips. My question is: In this particular situation, when you know you're opponent is on a flush draw and goes all-in, do you fold waiting to nail him when there is not a possible flush or do you automatically call his all-in?

Play 2:

I have top pair, top kicker. Let's say i have A-Q and the flop is Q-10-2 rainbow. The game is very loose and passive with lots of calling stations. I want to thin out the field because i know i'll get at least 4-5 callers but in these games, to thin out the field, you need to invest a lot of money. My question is: If you get called by someone, do you check the turn? This would sound like a weak play. If you bet the turn, do you have to bet a large amount? If so and he calls, do you assume you're beaten and check-fold the river?

The thing is that this play occurs quite often with weak players. So i never know if my top pair is good. Against a better player, he will probably fold second and third pair. But weak players only see that they have a pair. Yet, i could be up against a set or 2 pairs. So, investing a lot on top pair top kicker seems risky even if it will win quite often. I often lose a lot of money by just "protecting" my hand and thining out the field. Should I simply bet less, let everyone in (giving them a chance to outdraw me) and hope for the best or betting the necessary amount to thin out the field?

Thank you very much!

Jeff

Answer:

Play 1: Hitting a set with a pocket pair in no limit holdem, what you should be thinking about is extracting the most money from your opponent; folding should be the last thing on your mind. You are correct that if you have a set and your opponent has a flush draw, then there is a chance that he can catch up. Him having a pair and a flush draw doesn't matter that much against the set. He is going to win about 30% of the time with the flush draw versus your set.

Without a pair with the flush draw, he wins about 26% of the time. (A pair and a flush draw is a very strong hand if you didn't have a set.) It isn't comforting to think that even with such a strong hand like this, you'll still lose around a third of the time, meaning you are out of the tourney. But what alternative do you have? Playing poker well means that you will take advantage of what edges the game provides; and the edges in poker aren't huge. When we are running badly, getting run down and bad beated every hand it is easy to think that the opponents are hitting 100:1 draws and we are the unluckiest players on earth.

But take a second to compare two hands: the best hand in poker, pocket aces, and the worst hand in poker, 72 offsuit. If they both go all-in preflop, the 72 still will win about 12 or 13% of the time! Clearly, we aren't going to be given many situations like this in regular games; instead we are going to have to make the best of what is given to us, which means that you'll have to push smaller edges. To put this in another light, compare going all-in preflop with AQ against an opponent's A8. This is a very favorable situation, right? This would be the same odds as you and your set against the guy's flush draw. He will beat you his share of the time, but the rest of the time you'll kill him.

Play 2: This question is a little tougher for me to give a specific answer to than the first. For simplicity's sake, let me rule out some other variables by assuming that you have a good amount of chips and so do your opponents. You mentioned that the game is such that you'll get 4-5 callers on the flop if you bet. If the game is that loose, then I would likely try to raise some preflop. Big hands are difficult to play postflop when you have lots of opponents.

The more opponents there are, the greater the danger someone has flopped something big and with a big hand you want to go the distance and it is hard to fold. Also, by raising some preflop you give away deception, but in turn you get better reads on opponent's play. When no one knows what you have, they could overplay their KQ into you and it would appear as they had a very strong hand. If you defined your hand some preflop, then if someone played back at you a lot postflop it narrows down what they might have (generally).

The guy with the KQ might behave more. Either way, let's say you still get lots of callers into this flop. You are correct, that betting more than normal on the flop is the right move. When you have lots of callers in a hand, the first thing that should pop into your head is that this is a dangerous situation and it is likely you'll get in trouble. (This would be like raising preflop with AA and getting 8 callers -- good luck!) Just as you would bet/raise more preflop with your AA if lots of players were already in, the same applies here. Depending on how much money is already in the pot and wagered, you'll need to wager enough to discourage some of the players from continuing. Bet enough to limit it to one or two opponents.

With a flop like QT, there are many draws. You probably don't even want to catch your Ace. With 5 callers, there are very few cards that can come off that won't improve someone's hand. Now, if betting some is good, then is going all-in better? No. An all-in bet here will most likely get everyone to fold, unless someone has you beat. Betting some weeds out some of the players but still potentially keeps in the opponent's who you still want in the hand. Your next question was if you should check now, assuming you are beat? No. What would a check accomplish? Given the description of the game and players, it is likely that they will continue calling you with a worse hand. Against weak players who most likely have bad hands, you want to make sure to get your bets in.There is nothing yet that suggests one has you beat.

The fear of getting raised isn't strong enough here to check. Also, if you were to check and one did go all-in, your information would be mixed. Does the guy have you beat or is he bluffing or does he just think his QJ is good? You'll have no idea because you checked, which communicates "I don't have much." On the other hand if you bet again and then get raised, it means something. The goal for the turn bet is to get value on your hand while at the same time protecting yourself against busting out. To go all-in here probably wouldn't serve either goal. (An all-in would only be the best play if you knew pretty well what your opponent had and you were certain he would call you.)

Now if you bet again and the player plays back at you with a big raise or an all-in, then you'll need to think hard about what it means and if you still have the best hand. The decision will be much easier to make because of the way you've played the hand up to that point. A player waiting to raise the turn after being bet into on both the flop and turn does likely have a big hand.

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