07- 3-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
NL Holdem Cash Game Questions
I like your website very much and I have learned a lot from you. I think I have developed a tight aggressive style to play online full ring NL100. However, it seems to me that playing tight aggressively usually is not the fastest way to triple or quadruple your buy-in. Those people who are up a couple racks are usually LAGs, and they seem to play nearly 50% of their hands. Moreover, they tend to stay to see the turn card or even the river card. Sometimes I see they make their hand at turn or river and get paid off huge. Am I just playing too weak tight?
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1. I played all pocket pairs at all positions, and will call a raise as long as my opponent has stack size bigger than 10 times of his raise. I also raise with AK s/o, AQ s/o, and try to limp with AJ s/o, A10 s/o, and all Ax suited. I also limp with KQ s/o, and may be KJ suited, and all suited connectors from J10 down to 54. Am I playing too tight?
2. I like to play small pocket pairs against a raise, as I know I usually get paid off big if I hit my set. However, I notice that suited connectors actually have a higher winning % against high pocket pairs than small pocket pairs. Say 78s vs KK is 21% again 79%, which 33 vs KK is only 19% vs 81%. As I always call a raise with small pocket pairs, should I also call a raise with any suited connectors? I am hesitated to play like this as I analyze my poker office database, and surprisingly I found that almost all suited connectors are net losers. The big money makers are all pocket pairs, especially AA and KK. AK s/o and AQ s/o are also good.
3. Nowadays when I am dealt AA, KK or QQ, I would feel excited, but then I would worry that someone would give me a bad beat or flop a set to make me lose big money. I know this has been asked before, but how can you be sure when to lay down your big pocket pairs? Say you get AA, flop 7 5 2 with two diamonds, and when you bet 2/3 pot, someone reraise you twice or all-in. Does it mean you should lay it down? Or how about they call your flop bet, and when you bet ½ or 2/3 pot at turn, they re-raise you all-in? I know read is important, but you know there are about a lot of crazy people at NL100, and sometimes it is hard to lay down AA or KK when they board does not seem dangerous.
4. I have played full ring NL200 before, and it seems my strategy still works, may be sometimes add a little more bluffing. I don't play NL200 as I want to wait till I get $4000 (20 buy-ins). I just don't want to lose $200 for the same mistakes when I can lose just $100. It seems to me that playing like a tight "set miner" is still okay at even full ring NL1000. Am I right?
5. I have played over 20k hands recently in online NL100, and the more I play, the more I feel that as long as I make as few mistakes as possible, I will make pretty steady and good money while bearing all the bad beats and cooler hands. I read on 2 plus 2 forums and they said once I can get to mid stakes like NL400+, the money would be very good (10k plus possible in a month). Is that really true?
Anyway, I want to thank you for putting up such a great website. I appreciate your hard work very much. I also want to thank you for taking time to read my email.
Keep up the good work,
Kenneth
Answer(s):
Thanks for the questions Kenneth.
Number one: Be careful about giving another player too much credit. There are very few long term winners in poker and those that do well aren't typically fancy or reckless players. Anyone can amass a lot of chips if they are getting lucky that session. This can even happen for multiple sessions. But that doesn't mean they are ahead overall. You'll notice players who do all kinds of things that you are advised against, and sometimes it works, leading you to believe they know something you don't. My advice is to be skeptical until you've thought it out.
1. Are you playing too tight? That's a very hard question to answer. I look at starting hands as more of a function of the table's play, instead of strict rules that are the same from one game to the next. I try to get away with as much as I can without it becoming a stumbling block for me winning. If you loosen up too much, good and bad players will punish you with better cards. Also, you don't want to play ultra tight because it will be hard to make any money. Balance is key. It sounds like you are doing fine with the current system. To expand this, you don't just throw in more cards, you try to understand the game on a deeper level so you can take advantage of opportunities you were missing. Another way to expand your game some is to learn how to play the hands you are currently playing in a different way to maximize their potential (money). Try to work how to trap more. Another way to improve as a player is to be more in tune with the dynamics of the game and how other players are feeling. As you become more in tune, you begin to have an internal gauge so you can loosen up a little, or tighten up as needed. This is more fine tuning than anything else. It's important to understand that no matter how well you play, you can only make so much in a session. The cards only allow so much. And as you watch those guys doing unconventional things and getting paid off, it can be tempting to join in yourself. The great thing about poker is that any stupid play occasionally pays off, so unless you have a strong idea of what your strategy is, it is easy to digress into losing play.
2. A couple points about suited connectors and small pocket pairs... First of all, when you look at a stat like 78s vs KK, it is important to carefully interpret the data. To get to the point, those percentages are if you both see the river. So unless you are planning on calling to the river, a stat like 30% can, in real play, means something very different than "I'll win with this 30 percent of the time." You need to ask yourself what it is you are looking for with a hand like 78s and how easy it will be to play the hand postflop? Even if you flop top pair, are you going to be that happy with it? This brings me to my next point about suited connectors versus pocket pairs: You have a made hand with one, and most of the time a drawing hand with another. Like I just mentioned (especially against a preflop raiser) with a hand like 87s, you aren't really looking for a pair. You are hoping for a flush or straight draw. But even if you catch a draw on the flop, you still have to hit it -- which you'll miss two thirds of the time. So yes, a suited connector is almost the same win percentage as a pocket pair against the overpair, but the way the hands are played postflop is much different. Suited connectors aren't bad hands, it just takes the right scenario to make them profitable.
3. I just answered a question like this a few days ago... In a cash game like 100NL, you can never fully guard against someone flopping a monster on you. The best you can do is put it into context based on how the player was previously playing, the texture of the flop and the amount of chips. Example: If I have a hand like KK and one tight player calls me, then raises me on the turn all-in when the flop is something innocuous like Q-7-3-2, I'm worried. On the other hand if this is a loose crazy player, I'm not nearly as concerned.
4. Sure, a solid game will beat all levels of poker. Even a bad player playing good cards will eventually beat a good player playing bad cards at a full ring game. I think the number one mistake players make, myself included, is to assume that you need to do an overhaul of your strategy as you move up, meaning getting really tough and tricky. You don't. What good players go is make you think they are playing tricky, but then they keep showing you solid hands. Play your game. Any adjustment you'll need to make will be a very minor one.
5. How much you can make per month is an "it depends" question -- it depends on how much you play and how well you are playing. Poker doesn't scale well. For example, you can't say, "I'm making x amount playing 10/20, therefore I'll make 10x that playing 100/200." Nor can you say, "I'm making x amount per day twice a week, so I'll make 3.5x that if I play everyday." You have to look at it like a sport. You can't expect to play everyday and keep the level of play up. And you can't expect to keep moving up to stiffer competition and beating them as easily. With this said, I think somewhere around 10k for a 400 buy-in game is reasonable.
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