02-20-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
Multiple All-ins Early In A Tourney
Top 3 Beginner Rooms
First of all Gareth, you made a good distinction. It is important to understand that the same sequence of moves doesn't necessarily mean the same thing in different games or tournaments. If this were the world series of poker on the first day, I would say that your 88 is probably not good. On the other hand, since this is a low limit sit and go tourney, chances are that your set is the best hand and that the other players are just overplaying their hands.
Putting the actions of your opponents into a specific context -- the more info the better -- helps you make the best decision. An all-in from one guy isn't the same as another.
Now, preflop the odds of winning are like this:
QTs - 31%
Your 88 - 30%
AK - 27%
A4 - 10%
These odds are kind of deceiving though, because they are odds to the river, which isn't realistic. For example, it wouldn't be likely you would chase your 88 to the river if the flop came back A - Q - T. So the flop changes a lot of things. Generally speaking, the more players who see the flop, the more effect the flop will have in the outcome.
Basically, whoever connects with the flop will most likely be the winner. And the battle will usually end up being a made hand versus a big draw. Looking at the following stats, we can see that postflop you are hugely ahead:
88 - 70%
QT- 28%
AK - 2%
A4 - 1%
So now that we can see the numbers, do you feel bad at all for putting all your money in to potentially quadruple up when you will win the pot 70% of the time? Of course not. You made the right decision. The flip side of this is, should someone with the QT also draw? Well, if he knew that he would win 30% of the time by the river, and get back 3:1 on his money (3 all-ins with around the same amount to his 1 all-in), then yes he should draw too. He's getting 3:1 on his money for a draw that will hit around 2:1.
My only objection with his play is that he wasn't calling for his money, he was raising all-in. Granted, by being the aggressor, you are giving yourself extra ways of winning by betting and possibly making the opposition fold, but he is also skewing the odds against himself. If this were a larger tournament, what would have happened is as follows. Everyone would have seen the flop, the weak A4 would have come out betting, like he did above, and the draw raised all-in. That raise all-in would have knocked out the A4 for sure, and the AK most likely too.
The only hand that would have called would be your hand, the 88, in which case he isn't getting good odds at all. So he ended up doing ok for the sole reason of the loose players calling, but his play wasn't ideal. This is a case of making the wrong move at the right time and having it pan out.
To finish up, what is the lesson here? I'm sure your first thought since the results weren't what you wanted, is that you errored in some way and that next time you'll maybe play it differently. That is not it at all. Poker is very difficult because it is hard to anchor yourself to anything if you are having a run of bad luck. Things that shouldn't work do and good play fails. You are constantly getting negative reinforcement.
The important thing to remember, and the lesson here, is that you can't wan just because the luck isn't going your way. There is objective right and wrong. Regardless of the last hand or the last fifty hands, you have to play your set of eights correctly. So the next time this happens, you'll play it the same way and most likely win.
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