06- 8-04, LearnTexasHoldem:
Missing AK on the flop
I have AK offsuit in relatively early position and raise it preflop. There are no raises and 4 stay for the flop. The flop is rags, 10-9-3 rainbow. Obviously, I have no hand but the board is not scary so likely the best hand out there is pair of tens. Unfortunately, someone could have flopped a set as always or have a possible straight draw. I know that I have 6 outs, which means I have a 25% chance to get top pair top kicker by the river. But what I do not know is whether or not top pair top kicker is going to win this hand. We all know poker is a game of incomplete information. There is a bet in front of me. Now I have 3 choices, call, raise or fold. Folding is by no means the worst play here, since I only have a 25% chance to win this hand and it is unlikely to be a grand pot anyway with only 4 in the flop ($2 table). I can call, but then I only get additional information about people's hand if somebody else raises. So I raised. The other 2 guys folded and the opener calls my bet. Now I am heads up with the following information:
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Long story short, I got a K on the turn and he checked and then called my bet. So he doesn't have K 9 and I end up winning with a pair of Kings vs. pair of Tens with crap kicker.
The point is, if he had raised me back on the flop, I could dump the hand and get out fairly cheaply knowing he had a set or 2 pair and I was likely drawing dead. By raising pre and or post flop when it is cheap, you can gather a ton of information about other people's hands. Whether the information comes as good news or bad news is irrelevant, you need that additional information. That is why raising and folding is better than being a calling station.
Answer: Thanks for sending this in Charlie.
Few points:
* Free Card - in limit holdem, you can raise on the flop and then check the turn card to see the river for "free". Now this doesn't always work and often times you'll get three bet on the flop if the person has a good hand. Doing this with overcards like AK is a fine play to mix up your moves.
* Advertising - you may get additional action on later hands when people see that you are raising overcards on the flop. So even if you don't catch your Ace or King and win, you can still benefit from doing this occasionally.
* Limiting Field - another plus from your play was that you probably got out some hands that could have run you down had you just called. A small raise here may be the difference between you winning and losing even if you do catch your Ace or King. You may also get heads up with someone who just has a draw and you'll win if they miss. You don't want to let a guy with just a pair of 9s see the turn for cheap.
* Married to AK - with the above said, I would warn you against letting AK become an anchor that you down with regardless of the texture of the flop/hand. Some flops are better for continuing with over cards. The above example was a good one. You like flops that have a Ten or Jack and lower cards. Or you also like flops that give you a gutshot with your AK like JT4 or QT3. That gives you enough reason to see the turn card and maybe even the river if your draw still looks promising to win if it hits. Moderation is the key here though as with anything else. Going to the river with AK everytime if you miss is a big hole in some peolpe's games.
* No Limit/Limit - the above story was about limit holdem but many of the ideas can be carried over the no limit. The main difference in no limit compared to limit though would be that you can win the hand right on the flop in no limit by betting enough while in limit you'll need to actually show the best hand to win.
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