07- 3-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
KK Cash Game Hand
I'm a shorthanded NL$200 player (blind are $1-$2). I'm doing well at this table. This hand appeared and I would like to hear your opinion.
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The flop comes 9s 5s 2s. With $33 in the pot, This guy goes all-in (appx. $150 to call).
Here's how I thought:
This is grossly overbet, because anybody with a made flush would call. No point for him in betting like this with the nut flush or with smaller suited connecting spades. If he doesn't have a flush yet, what could he have? An overpair which I could beat, or a small pair hitting a set, or just two overcards with one spade or a bad bluff. Two pairs are not likely because of the preflop raise. So the only scary hand I think is the made set leaving me with just two outs. 1. Which is the most likely hand he's holding? 2. Is my way of thinking correct? 3. Based on this and my chipstack, is it worth calling? 4. If not, would you have called with the K of spades?
Thanks,
Laurent.
Answer:
This is a tough one. I'm 70% folding, 30% calling.
Calling (both weak points):
- it sounds like he is trying to protect his hand against a draw, not betting a draw.
- you mentioned you are quite aggressive and this is a shorthanded table. If he isn't giving you as much credit because you have been raising a lot, then that puts his bet into a different perspective.
Folding (both very strong points):
- even if you do have him beat now, which I think you do, that doesn't mean you won't lose by the time the hand is over. He may have something like AK with a spade or JJ with a spade, etc.
- you said he wasn't in the game for long, meaning you don't know how he plays. For an unknown player to risk all his chips into a scary pot should instill fear. Either he has a big draw or a big hand, neither of which I would feel comfortable against.
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