02-23-04, LearnTexasHoldem:

I know the odds now, so what?...

Question: Thanks for the quick reply. However, I was wondering more about what these %'s tell me about staying in a hand. If we use a 4 to the flush after the flop scenario, I have a 36% chance to make my hand. If we go purely by the math, the odds tell me to go away because my chances aren't greater than 50%. Should most (if not all) my plays only be when I have a greater than 50% chance to make my hand? If not, what is the play? Semi-bluff, raise, call or fold? What should the pot amount be for me to stay in? That's where I'm having the trouble. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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Answer: Well the odds are there to let you know if you should continue your draws. You definitely don't need a 50% or better to continue since the pot is usually larger. I'll give you a concrete example on how to use these numbers. Let's say you are on the button with QJs and 4 people call and you call. The big blind raises and everyone calls. There are 6 people in with 2 bets each. That is a total of 12 bets already. The flop is A - T - 3 giving you a gutshot straight draw to the King.

Should you call a bet? Gutshot draws to hit with only one card are about 1 in 11 or 10:1. Since there is already 12 bets in the pot, you should definitely call one bet since you're getting good odds to say nothing of the bets you will get if you hit it. Calling on the river card probably isn't the best idea since the odds will change at that point. Another example would be if you have the same hand but only the big blind and you are in with no raise. There are two players in with 1 bet each in the pot. That's only 2 bets. Calling for your gutshot there would lose you money in the long term.

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