12- 8-04, LearnTexasHoldem:
Hand Grouping Tables Validity 2
>> Right, that is a good start. Starting hand selection is only part of how to play winning poker. You can't play winning poker without good hand selection but it isn't enough alone to guarantee success.
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>> Part of that is correct -- the part where you are more likely to play a hand like 22 if you are in late position after you have seen other people's moves than you would in early position. Calling all-in with 22 in late position would still be a bad play though because at best you are even money with any two over cards and at worst you are a big underdog. Playing 22 in a raised pot heads up usually isn't something you would want to do in a cash game or a tournament. With that kind of hand you'll need more players in so you get the right odds to try and catch your set/trips since that is the only way the hand will have any strength.
If the player who raised were holding say, AKs, the player with 22 would be no worse off than someone who had folded with QQ. Against either pair, the player with AK would win by pairing with either the K or the A. If the player with AKs doesn't pair, and no straight or flush comes up, the player with 22, 33, 44, 55, etc would win. In short, the outcome would be a coin toss. Of course, the player with the pair doesn't know whether the player who raises has AKs, AJ or, JJ. Against AJ the player with the pair would much prefer QQ, since the player with AJ must pair with the A to win. I would guess QQ is a four to one favorite, head-to-head against AJ. Against the JJ, of course the queens "win" and the deuces "lose".
>> It is true that AK catching an Ace or King by the river has about the same chance of winning against 44 as JJ or QQ but I don't think it is helpful to think about starting hands in those terms or you'll keep getting yourself in marginal situations. If you have QQ and someone raises before you, you almost always reraise regardless if it is in no limit holdem, limit holdem, tourney or cash game. On the other hand if you have a hand like 44, most of the time you would muck it because there are very few flops that can come that give you any confidence.
If we are talking about just going all-in preflop because you are running out of chips in a tournament, then any pair is worth gambling with but in regular play you wouldn't do well by risking a lot of chips with small pairs. People raise with a wide variety of hands and if you reraise with 44 and they call (which they will), unless you flop a 4, you'll be guessing as to whether you really do have the best hand. Even if you flop something all low like 872, the guy could have been raising with A8 or 55 for all you know.
Now, if a player with a low pair were desperately low on chips, he/she may as well take the chance that the other player has AK or AJ and not JJ. If the player with the low stack doesn't call, in subsequent hands, he/she still wouldn't have enough chips to bet against multiple opponents up to the river, and he/she would ultimately lose anyway. Perhaps a 50-50 chance to double his/her chips and get back in to a position where he/she is able to bet competitively is better than "no chance" at all. It follows that if the situation were reversed, that is if the player who is low on chips goes all-in, than the chip leader might not call, even if the chances are no worse than 50-50. Why give the "losing" player even that much chance to get back into the tournament?
>> When someone raises all-in preflop in a tournament when getting low on chips, their one concern is their hand. If you had the choice of going all-in under the gone with 44 or waiting one more hand and being in the big blind for all your chips with a random hand, you'll take the 44 in a heart beat. You mentioned another part of why being aggressive and betting instead of calling is advantageous: The other players may fold. Remember there is a difference between a hand you would call with and a hand that you would bet with. You might raise with AT in late position, but if an early position player raised and you had AT, you would muck.
The same logic applies to the 44 or other small pairs. You might raise them yourself, but to call with them is another story. You would only make that suspect move when either you are forced to or you are getting a nice return on the amount of chips you have to invest to hit a 4. In most games you'll have to muck on the flop with those little pocket pairs so it doesn't make sense to spend too much preflop with them.
Anyway, suppose I do want to go all-in against all 9 players. I still need to know what my chances are with AA. Simply putting it tops on the list is not enough. Do I have a 60% chance, going in blind against everyone, or are my odds better or worse than that?
>> I have no idea what your odds of AA holding up if all 9 other players called all-in. I would guess it would be much lower than 60%. With 9 other hands in, the chance of your one pair winning unimproved is slim. I'm not sure what use that stat would be though since I don't think I've ever seen a hand where every player at the table called all-in and someone had AA. I think it would be helpful if you watched how the typical holdem game progressed. No limit holdem really isn't a game of all-in races. Those are sensationalized on the TV but that is only a very small part of the game.
Mike
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