07-27-04, LearnTexasHoldem:

Expected Value

Question: HELLO! I AM WRITING THIS EMAIL TO THANK YOU FOR YOUR RESPONSE ON A PREVIOUS EMAIL THAT I HAD WRITTEN INQUIRING ABOUT POKER TELLS (PREFLOP.) ALSO, I HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT "EXPECTED VALUE." I HAVE FOUND MANY SITES THAT MENTION IT YET NONE THAT EXPLAIN IT THOROUGHLY OR HOW IT IS USED. COULD YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN:

Top 3 Beginner Rooms

1)WHAT IS EXPECTED VALUE?

2)HOW DO YOU CALCULATE YOUR EXPECTED VALUE AND IF +/-?

3)HOW RELEVANT, IF AT ALL, IS THIS CONCEPT TO THE GAME OF TEXAS HOLD'EM IN THE NO LIMIT SETTING?

YOUR HELP IN THIS MATTER WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED IN THIS MANNER AND WILL FURTHER ASSURE ME THAT YOUR WEBSITE DESERVES AN "A+." ;)

Answer:

1. Expected value is a number that describes the results of a number of actions. It is an average that shows what should happen is given enough time.

2. You calculate expected value by comparing your mathematical chances of winning to losing over a number of tries. Let's do an example. Let's say we have a ten sided die and I pay you 8:1 odds for everytime you guess correctly. You decide to play 100 times at a $1 each time. Looking at the math, you'll have a 1/10 chance of guessing correctly. So out of 100 guesses, you should win 10. Since I pay you 8:1 for each correct guess, that makes you a total of $80. Out of those 100 guesses, you will guess 90 wrong at a cost of $90 total.

That means after 100 tosses you will have lost $10 total. We compare this number to the overall wagered amount to get the expected value: $10/$100 That totals a negative 10%. So every toss of the dice you should lose 10 cents. You have a negative expectation of 10% Note that for this outcome to be realized, you'll need to play for a while under these same set of requirements.

3. I am not a big believer in expected value. Some people really are into this and they calculate all their stats for how much they expect to win per hand they play. I think this is a waste of time because there are so many other variables that come into play that is isn't accurate. Humans are unpredictable so you might make $100 in one pot with AA while only $10 in another because you are up against another player who is more cautious.

People in poker who like EV are also really into hourly rates -- the idea that you just clock in when playing poker and make the same amount each day and how much you make is decided only by how much you play. I don't buy into that either. Games change, people change, I change. The idea that I can predict in broad terms what my results will be when working in such a varying environment isn't convincing to me.

Your rating:

Click on the clover of your choice

User Rating: (1 Votes)

  • Share on Facebook
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us