03-23-04, LearnTexasHoldem:
When To Draw Based On Odds
Question: I don't know when I'm supposed to draw? Say I have a four flush on the flop and someone bets big should I call fold or raise?
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Answer: Ok first of all, check out this page on odds which talks about implied odds and regular odds. Then check out some of the more common odd numbers for drawing hands in this table. I'm also assuming that you are playing no limit holdem here and called preflop since you are seeing the flop. If you are faced with a drawing hand you have to figure out if a raise fold or call is the best move (obviously). To do that you have to ask yourself a few questions ( a few questions turned into seven below):
- If I catch my draw, am I going to win? You don't want to be drawing dead. That means that if you catch you still lose. To know this you need to be able to have a decent idea what your opponent has. Paying attention to their previous play will help out a lot. If they raise all the time, chances are they don't always have AA, KK or some other great hand. That doesn't mean they don't have anything, it just means the chance they have one of those hands is less. So if the board is ATT and you have a flush draw, that is a no no since you may already be drawing dead to the full house.
- What are your current pot odds? Let's say that the blinds are $5/10 and the two of you put in $30 preflop. That means that the pot is about $75. If you have a straight or a flush draw, the chance of it getting there on the turn card is 4:1 and by the river it is about 2:1. So let's say the guy only had $25 left and put it all-in. That makes $100 total in the pot and you have to call only $25. That makes it an easy call. If he comes out betting $75 at the pot then you aren't getting the odds to call unless you think if you catch you'll get more money out of him. That brings us to the next point, implied odds.
- What are your implied odds? Implied odds are bit more tricky in no limit holdem then in limit holdem because the upside can be so large (all the chips), or it can be next to nothing. I'm apprehensive about weighting implied odds on typical draws, especially flush draws, since they are so obvious. When the hand gets there, you can't really count on the person giving you much more since he can see so easily that the board has 3 hearts on it. Take the example above when the person came out betting $75 at the $75 pot. That means you'll have to put in $75 for a $150 pot. You are getting 2:1 on your money. If you would call all the way to the river, that would be just enough odds to make it correct with your flush draw (break even).
- How much will it cost you? When deciding whether to call a bet, like the example above, you shouldn't only take into account how much it will cost the initial bet. You need to take into account how much it will cost you over the course of the hand. Are you going to stick around for another card if you miss it on the turn? and if you only decide to call it on the turn your odds go from 2:1 down to 4:1.
- Who has more chips? Normally people think of tourneys when chip size is mentioned, but it does matter for regular no limit games too. Let's look at it from both angles. Let's say you only have $25 left when the person in the example above. That means you have to call $25 at a chance of a $150 pot with a 2:1 draw (since you'll be all-in and see the river card). That's an easy move. Now let's say the other person has only $25 left and you have $100. If he goes all-in and bets $25 into a $75 pot, that makes it $100 total that you have to call $25 or. You are already getting 4:1 from the pot odds and since he is all-in, you'll get to see the river for free giving you 2:1. That also makes it easy to call. The problem arises when you both have a lot of chips. Then he has the opportunity to freeze out your draw if you miss it on the turn. He could bet $75 into the pot and you call, then he could bet $150 into the pot on the turn and you would be dumb to pay it unless you wanted to gamble. Chips matter a lot in no limit holdem and without them it is impossible to protect a pot.
- Is this a hand you can break him with? This question is related to implied odds. I mentioned above how the flush draws are pretty obvious so the chance of getting someone to move all their chips in when you have the nut flush is pretty unlikely (unless they have a smaller flush). Most of the time you'll catch and then either get called on a relatively small bet or get folded to when you bet big. What if you had a hand that was much more disguised? What if you made a dubious play and called for a gutshot straight on the turn card or for a small pair to catch a set when you know your opponent has a great hand like AK, AA, KK, etc? That sounds like bad play right? Not in no limit! Often times those hands make the most money against bad players. If he is willing to put all his chips in the pot whenever he has AA or KK regardless of the flop, then catching something crazy makes it well worth it. Let's take a concrete example like a double belly buster straight draw. You are in late position or the big blind and have T8. A tight player who you haven't seen in one pot yet raises three times the blinds. Everyone folds and you call. The flop is Q96 rainbow (no two cards of one suite). Notice that any J or 7 gives you the straight. This is called a double belly buster and it has the same outs as an openended straight draw (8 cards make you the straight). If he overbets the pots so my odds aren't great, I still may call if I know that if I hit he will pay me off will his whole stack. Say if you have 44 here and he bets a good amount. I may even gamble a little with him if I catch the 4 on the turn card if I'm sure he will move all-in if I raise. Also, if I am in better position then this guy, I'll be more likely to call since if he only has AK, then sometimes he will check the turn and I'll get a free card. The point here is that sometimes you play differently then the current odds dictate, just because if you hit you may be able to take all the guys money -- that adds up to more then enough odds and it lends variety to your game.
- What does he think you have? The last point to keep in mind is what your opponent thinks you have. We just talked about him misreading you and putting all his money in the pot at the wrong time and this has everything to do with that. If you have 44, he will never see it coming if you flop a set or catch it on the turn. If he knows you have the flush draw, that will seriously cut down on your implied odds. Deception is very important.
So there are seven things to keep in mind when playing drawing hands. It seems like a lot of information to juggle in a few seconds of play but after you get some experience under your belt it will be second nature. Only rarely then will you be faced with a close call decision and if it is that close, then chances are you won't lose much playing either way. One thing I didn't talk about much here is raising your draws. A few points on that... First, you want to mix up your play somewhat. That shouldn't be an issue for lower limit games though. Secondly, I play the hand in the way that I'll make the most money. I would rather catch and get paid off then raise and then win a tiny pot. I'm not playing to win as many pots as I can, just a few huge ones. Sometimes though, I will put in my money on the flop so that if I do catch he will have no choice but to pay me off since his money is already out there. When my stack size is smaller I'm more likely to do this. Lastly, I'm cautious about postflop raising in no limit holdem. Unless I'm pretty sure that if I raise I'll get the result I want, I'll wait for a better spot to put so many chips in. That's not pussy poker, its just being smart. I would rather actually raise a hand where I know if I get reraised I'll just fold. With the draw if I open the flood gates and he goes over the top of me with a big raise, I'll have a hard decision and I'll most likely then have to call. I try not to create bad spots for myself where I'll get trapped.
Ok that's about it, this is turning into a book.
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