01-16-06, LearnTexasHoldem:

Does Burning Cards Change The Odds?

Question: We play every week and a debate started a few weeks ago. In our group, we do not burn cards. Everyone knows this and it was in an effort to speed up the game and avoid dealing errors. A new person to the game has the opinion that if you burn cards you decrease the odds of possibly hitting what you need, because there are less cards left in the deck. For example, if you have a pair KK and there are 4 players, then there are 44 cards left in the deck before the flop. If a card is burnt, then the deck decreases to 43 before you flop.

Top 3 Beginner Rooms

I disagreed with him. I say the number of unknown cards is still set at 44. Even if you burned 5 cards, the odds of you hitting are still the same because there will still be random cards selected to flop. Sure burning cards changes the outcome, because you are selecting different cards to flop, but odds of hitting do not change.

He says he majored in Finite Math,,,, but I say it doesn't matter he is wrong.....

What do you think?

Answer:

Burning cards does not change the odds. The reason cards were originally burned is as a cheating mechanism.

Sometimes with these things, it is easier to simplyfie the problem. Let's say you have three boxes, each wrapped the same and weighing the same. Only one has a present in it, the other two have traps that when opened, will render you impotent. You can choose any of the boxes and open it, keeping what you find inside. If all three are on the table, your odds of getting the present are 1 out of 3. (This is the same as not burning any cards.)

Now, let's say I remove one box and have you select between only two boxes. What are the odds you only get the trap? You have the same chance still, 1 in 3 of getting the present. Granted, if neither of the two boxes have the present in it, you are screwed, but that doesn't change the odds. No box is weighted differently, so it is just as likely the box not on the table has a gift or a trap in it. Lastly, what if you only had one box remaining on the table? The odds would still be 1 in 3, for the same reasons. Sure, now your fate is sealed, but your chances don't change since each box is exactly the same. This whole thing hinges on valuing each unknown box or card equally.

Your rating:

Click on the clover of your choice

User Rating: (0 Votes)

  • Share on Facebook
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us