01- 4-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
Did I Make The Right Play?
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This is a 6 man event. We start w 10K in chips, initial blinds are 100/200. VERY early on this occurs… From the button, I'm dealt AKd. 2 people limp in. I raise to $1000. (5 * BB). In our game, people rarely limp w good hands - usually small pairs or suited connectors. The BB calls my bet, the others fold.
Flop comes Qd, Jd, 6c. I've flopped a straight draw, flush draw, and even the royal flush draw. With $2400 in the pot, my lone remaining opponent bets $4000. Keep in mind, he now has half his chips we play with in the pot.
I now make 2 mistakes. First, I misread his holding. I put him on top pair, probably AQ, maybe KQ or even Qx. With AA or KK, I think he'd have re-raised me. (though as I type this out, that too is a mistake. That is what I would have done. He is a notorious slow player…) So, I calculate my outs.
9 for the flush, 3 other 10s for the straight, and I give myself 3 more for the Ace. I really should only have given myself 12 total outs instead of 15. Then, I also was thinking in terms of my odds w 2 cards to go. If I had 15 outs, I would have actually have been a favorite w 2 cards to see. With 12, I was a 55-45 dog.
Anyway, in that situation, facing a $4000 bet, what is your play? I chose the worst possible option - calling. As soon as the turn card came (and missed), I realized my error. My opponent went all in for the last $5000, and I folded. So, give all of the above, would you have folded to the flop bet or gone all in?
My assumption is to fold, but I'd like to hear your thoughts. Was I right to then fold the all in bet on the fold? My opponent actually showed his hand - was holding pocket jacks on me, had trip jacks. So in reality, I was a bigger dog than I realized, making me feel even worse. J
Luckily, I think I learned a valuable lesson about not falling in love with pretty drawing hands, especially that early on. But I want to make sure I'm learning a correct lesson!
Thanks for your advice.
Answer:
For me, folding would not have been an option here. With a draw that big against one opponent, my gut tells me to push all-in. First, the flop bet seems really suspicious. I can't speak for the game you are playing in, but in most of my games, to come out firing into the preflop raiser here usually means weakness. It usually means the opponent is trying to test the waters to see if his marginal hand is any good. Rarely does it mean that the player is trying to suck you in by being tricky (all though here it did, and it would have worked well against me -- which is something to note for your own play book).
Next, the draw is massive. Even if you do only have 12 outs instead of 15, it is basically a coin flip. If you combine that with the first point -- that most of the time betting into the preflop raiser heads up is a "test the waters" type play -- the raise makes sense and puts you out front. Next, I don't like calling heads up with draws in no limit holdem. Either I like to take control or get out. Calling the flop often is the worst play because it leaves you vulnerable to a shut out type bet on the turn. And if you do make your flush on the turn card, chances are you won't get paid off for it. Another consideration is the type of player you are up against.
You mentioned this player likes to slow play a lot. That supports our assumption that the flop bet here is weak. Lastly, you can take into account your chips, your opponent's chips and your placement in the tourney. I don't put much emphasis on whether or not it is early in a tournament or late. AKs has the same chance of winning now as it does later. You shouldn't worry about going out first or just surviving. The way to win tournaments is to amass chips. You have to get mixed up in some pots. Think of it this way: What are the outcomes?
The most likely outcome is that he has a marginal hand and you are either even money or ahead. Him folding would be a likely possibility then. If he does in fact have a monster, you still aren't that bad off and you have pretty much a coin flip to see who takes down the big pot. Either way you are giving yourself a good shot at starting the tournament off strongly. The value judgment is whether or not taking a slight risk here to start off strongly is worth potentially getting busted out. The answer is yes.
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