07-22-05, LearnTexasHoldem:

Coin Flips In Tourneys Against Weak Players

Question: I recently hosted an 11 man home tourney, at which there were several aggressive college students attending. Early on I noticed that there were far more all ins being made than I am normally used to. I was up slightly from were I had started and as the table limped in around to me on the button I looked down and found big slick. He was a little under-dressed (off-suit) but at a table of limpers I felt good about my hand.

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I raised 3x the BB and the table folded around except for the man on my immediate right who pushed all in.  He was the big stack at the table and I felt that he was bullying with a low pair.  I called all in and he turns over pocket sevens.  He catches his 7 on the flop and I'm out of my own tourney early. 

Here's my question: I knew then and I knew after watching their play for the rest of the night that I am a much better player than they are. Should I, when facing the big stack, consider folding A-K off since I am most likely going to be in a coin flip situation. Should I wait to push a smaller stack all in and should I wait, so that, I can play hands at least to the flop to see where I stand w/ my cards and outplay these weaker opponents. I feel like my odds of finishing in the money are better than 45/55, which this hand left me with.

I think since I was the better player I should have reduced volatility. Sure I could have him dominated, but I could also be facing the big tickets. I am just not comfortable with my tournament session coming down to these odds but I know these situations happen often and I can't let them be a weak spot in my game. Any words of wisdom, since I know there is no universal answer here?

Joey in LA

Answer: Here are a few thoughts:

1. Your line of reasoning is correct in that you don't want to be drawing against weak opponents when you can beat them so easily in another way that is less risky. I'm not sure if that line of reasoning applies to this situation though...

2. I don't mind having the all-in against the chip leader. The downside is, obviously, that if you lose you are busted out. The upside, which I think it greater than the downside, is that being the chip leader, he is more willing to call your all-in with a weaker hand. Having very little chips doesn't scare you since the player is usually desperate for a hand; even if they do have a big one, the damage to your stack won't be significant.

The most dangerous person calling or reraising all their chips preflop is someone with a working amount of chips -- middle range. Think about it, he has plenty of room to keep waiting for a better situation, yet he picked this one to tango. So the big chip stack doesn't seem like a negative to me. He may have even called you with a hand like AJ or something. Along this line of reasoning too, all though your table might not have seen it, is that usually a raise from the button isn't as respected as a raise from other positions.

Since no one already raised, many solid players would raise from the button with mid-range hands just because of the positional advantage, to get to blinds out, and no one else has shown much of an interest in the hand.

3. When you are playing against overly aggressive players in a tournament, what is your plan to beat them? You see all these guys going all-in preflop with marginal hands. You are correct in thinking that you'll wait for a big hand yourself and put all your chips in against them. Well, what is bigger than AK then? What if you just called there, missed the flop and then had to fold, only to not get another big hand the rest of the night.

You would have kicked yourself for not playing the hand how you thought you should have. Don't let the short term results make you question your strategy. Chances are all the guys limping in didn't have much; it turned out one guy had a hand that was a coin flip -- that's ok.

4. You'll be hard pressed to get through a tournament without a coin flip. What's funny is that sometimes in a big tournament, first hand, there will be a big name TV tournament pro get dealt AK against another person's pair, they go all-in and the pro is out. That's just how it goes. (And also what is funny is that this situation is actually preferable, as opposed to sitting there, investing a day or two of time only to bust out, out of the money.) With AK, you don't have as many options in tournament poker.

The problem with the hand is that if you call a raise, most of the time you'll completely miss the flop; this is why the best way to play the hand is to get the money all-in preflop so that you can draw to five cards instead of three; plus, you can't get bluffed out. Notice the flipside of this: With pairs you have more flexibility. You can just call someone's reraise with a hand like JJ instead of going all-in. This has advantages if they have lots of chips and AK since if they miss the flop (no Ace or King), you can push your remaining chips in on the flop and now you cut them off from drawing. If you had gone all-in with the AK preflop, it would be a coin flip, but now you have them drawing to the flop only.

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