06-27-06, LearnTexasHoldem:
Big Pairs Versus Sets In No Limit Holdem
I have a recent hand I played that I thought would be interesting to share.
This hand was in a no-limit cash game ($0.50/$1.00) and deals with what I find to be one of the toughest reads - playing high pockets into a set Fortunately for me, I was on the right end of this story (to begin with at least), but I think it exemplifies just how tough this type of a situation is to play.
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The flop comes: 6 Clubs, 4 Hearts, 3 Clubs I check to the raiser who bets out $10, button folds and I reraise to $25, he thinks for a quick second, then pushes all in which I of course call. (at this point putting him onto either As or Ks) Lady luck did not shine upon me, as the turn was 7 Diamonds, river 5 Clubs, he indeed flips over Ks and we split the pot with the straight on the board. My question is this- how do you play overpairs without fear of the set? In this case, I made a strong re-raise which should position me to hold: (1) high pockets, (2) nut flush draw, (3) a set, or a (4) complete bluff. My opponent's options: fold, call, re-raise, or all-in. Personally I ranked his options in the following order:
1) fold- I check raised into a pre-flop raiser from out of position (if I was indeed on a bluff-it wasn't the flop or situation to do so) the move I made was so aggressive, and without any information on me, I would have to put me on; a set, pocket As or maybe Qs - being beat by all those combinations except the Qs-which would have been a very aggressive move in and of itself.
2) call- my rational being that by doing so, he would have been telling me I'm willing to take you down to the river-eliminating my chances of continuing a bluff. However, downside is he would be allowing for a free card in the case that I was on the nut flush draw. (once again, it would be a fairly bold semi-bluff to raise into a preflop raiser who bet out strong with only a drawing hand) On the turn, he can gauge by the strength of my bet- whether he would like to continue ($42 left in his stack, pot of $59.25-still not pot committed yet) Danger is that I will continue to value bet him to the river.
3) all-in- this play just seemed too aggressive considering he knew nothing about me as a player, and once again a high percentage of my likely holdings had him beat
4) re-raise -pointless, as he would have been pot committed
I write this not to be critical of my opponent's play (very tough decision), but to learn from it as to how I think I would play it. It's easy for me to say to "fold", knowing what I had. Any insights into how you protect your stack from being busted by a set would be appreciated.
have a great night,
Scott
Answer:
Much of the money you make in a no limit holdem cash game is when you have a big pair versus another player's second best hand, also being good, or against a big draw. Because of this, it isn't correct to take the approach that any substantial flop raise will push us off the big pair. So the real question here is: How do you know when to make a big call or a big fold when you hold an overpair? I'll go through a list considerations:
1. If the raise or all-in isn't large relative to the pot, how much you have invested, or have remaining, then you'll call. That's the easiest point and supercedes everything else. If you already have $150 in a pot and only have $50 left, it's an easy call to put the rest in when you have an overpair.
2. How many players are showing strength. Typically in no limit holdem, you'll be heads up in the big pots when the fireworks go off. Occasionally though, you'll have multi-way action. The more players in the pot, the more careful you should be. There will be more draws out there, but also more hands that connected with the flop. If you lose the initiative, meaning you aren't the one betting and getting called, but vice versa, then take warning. This is especially the case when you bet, another player raises and yet another calls or reraises.
3. The texture of the flop is another one that can help you make reads a lot better, especially when you put that in the context of who your opponent is. Say you raise with KK preflop and a tight player calls. The flop comes back rainbow, J - 3 - 2. For a tight player to want to get all the chips in with a weird uncoordinated flop like this, I'm a little wary.
4. How the opponent plays matters too. The main thing I'm looking here is how reckless that player has been in the past with large bets. Some players will only bet and raise with strong hands, others may be willing to put in a big raise with only top pair against your overpair. It's important to keep track of who is doing what. Then when it comes time to play against them, you do have a little more info. Much of hand reading isn't so much putting a player on a specific hand, but instead a range of hands. Then you take that range of hands and figure out how your hand matches up to them. Say I have QQ against a player who I've seen bet and raise a lot of marginal hands postflop. When the flop comes back J - 3 - 2, I can't put him on a set only. Based on his previous play, he is just as likely to have a Jack here than anything else, so I would call.
5. The last point is going with your gut feeling. Sometimes hands just don't feel right. It is good poker to occasionally lay down a winning hand. If you pay off every hand, then it makes it impossible to win. Pride yourself on a good laydown more than anything else, because is shows that you are in tune with the game and thinking objectively.
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