03-11-05, LearnTexasHoldem:

All-Ins Against Unthinking Opponents

Question: The Game: A home game tournament $20 buy-in, 1 re-buy. Start with 20,000 chips blinds start at 100/200. Blinds raise every 20 minutes. Roughly 24 people in the game (3 tables of 8). Pay top 5.

I make it to the final table where there are 9 of us. This group of people are below average players. Kind of mix. None of them figure out mathematical odds. They know what good starting hands are and they play their gut a lot. Most like to see flops in Ax and any 2 paint cards. Most have been playing the game for a few years now. I usually get respect as I am a tight aggressive player.

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Blinds are 3000/6000 at this point. I have 22,000 in chips and probably tied with 2 others for low stack at the table. So I am thinking I need to build some chips. I may be able to out last the other 2 for 6th, but in these tournaments I am gunning for first (and maybe that is wrong).

After a blind post I will be at 16000, which does not leave me anything for raises. I have to be honest. I like to push before the flop and this low stack is not making me feel comfortable about my position. I really seem to have a problem when I am low stacked with my chip management. I start to get anxious and look for any opportunity to push in. I know I need to be more patient here and I am working on that.

Anyway, I am in 3rd position (after playing and mucking 2 hands at this table) I get AdKh and move in for 22,000. Hoping to just get the blinds and last another 9 hands before having to post, but if I get called I am feeling alright about my chances. I get 1 caller (KcQs). I have no idea what he was thinking and I am feeling great about being roughly a 73+% favorite in the hand. Anyway flop is 972 (2 spades). Turn is As. Now I am 81% favorite and yes he hits the spade on the river for the flush (9 outs to my 35).

So replaying that hand I was thinking that had I limped in and he called (no raises and no other callers...except the big blind) then we see the flop. After the flop maybe we check - check. Then when I hit my Ace I move in and he may fold thinking either I already have the flush or hit the Ace. However, he may call with that Q high flush draw on the river or he realizes he is a dog and most likely will not draw to the backdoor flush. Lot's of variables to this scenario (are others in the hand since there was no pre-flop raise, what happens on the flop......does my check entice him/them to bet then what?, on and on).

So my question is this: When you are playing people that do not figure out odds and outs and just like "seeing flops" with good cards, do you limp in more and out play them after they have seen their flop and know that they only have 2 more cards coming to make their hand? I have lost more heads up situations with this group when I have been a serious favorite pre-flop than I can count.

I have seen these players lay down middle and bottom pair after the flop when they are pressed, but call an all-in pre-flop bet just because they know they have 5 cards coming and no more chances to get pushed out of the pot. My problem here is if I do not raise then there may be to many people in the pot and more likely for me to get out-drawn. If I do raise (1 bet - not all in) then I am only left with 10000 in a 33000 pot.

The best move may be to move in pre-flop with this stack, but I have been in these situations to many times when a bigger stack with a moderate hand knows that this may "knock a player out" - so they just call. I know if I had more chips then them I could push them out of the pot. My other option is to fold, but is that really an option in this situation?

This is a real problem for me and I hope you can help me out.

Thanks,

Tom

Answer: First of all, I think getting AK there was very lucky and pushing all-in was definitely the best play given your lack of chips. When you do go all-in in a tournament, what is the ideal situation? Would you prefer everyone fold and you pick up the blinds or would you want someone calling you with a dominated hand -- like the AK against KQ here? See the problem wasn't your play, it was that he got lucky. When you are a 70/30 favorite in a hand, that 30% can be a real bitch.

It sounds like you are way ahead, and if you played 100 hands like that you would be, but anything can happen with just one event/hand. Should this discourage you? No, definitely not. Poker is brutal sometimes but what causes you to lose in the end isn't the unluckiness, but letting that unluckiness get in the way of what you know is correct. Your question was if you should slow down preflop against the bad players and then hope to hit big flops and make them pay. While that isn't a bad strategy in some cases, that doesn't work when you are in a tournament short stacked.

You correctly summed up the situation, it just didn't work out. Holdem poker is a game of small edges. You make money by exploiting those small edges. If you know your opponent will call with an underdog hand, you want to bet as much money as you can. Don't shy away from the math just because they get you now and again.

Lastly, there are many reasons why you would slow down preflop but none of them are because you are afraid someone will get lucky against you. The strength of your hand doesn't come from the other players knowledge of odds (or lack there of) -- the numbers don't change regardless of who is familiar with them. Your hand is a statistical favorite and given enough time, you will come out on top. So keep playing, don't get frustrated and when you are ahead in the hand, make them pay for as much as you can get out of them.

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