04-10-06, LearnTexasHoldem:

AQs Unimproved PostFlop

Question:I was playing a $50 - 50 players no limit s&g tourney and we were down to 20 players. My stack was about $4500 (about avg) and sitting on the button with AQd. Blinds are $200-$400. Evryone folds except a middle position player with about $5000 stack size making it $1800 to go.

I've been playing very tight since the beginning of the s&g, while he has been involved in quite some hands. Earlier, he was chipleader with about $10000 which melted down to his appx. $5000.

I called the $1800 and the flop came 9d 3h 6d.

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Now, my opponent bets all-in ($3200) with $4200 in the pot. Of course, I put him on an overpair, trips seemed less likely. I didn't believe he had aces, because the preflop raise seemed way too high. I even considered the posibility that he was bluffing preflop, maybe hitting a pair on the flop.

Should I call his bet, considering that with appx $10000, I'd share the lead in chips and the way I play in s&g I probably would have made it in the money (places 1 to 7 get paid).

Thank for you reply.

Laurent.

Answer:

I would have called there.

You have to put in $2700 for a pot that is around $7400, which means you are getting almost 3:1 on your money (being absolutely accurate isn't important because your read won't be absolute either...ex: 65% is the same as 60% in poker since you aren't going to be playing enough of these hands to see the difference that 5% makes).

What are the possible hands he might have?

At best he has 99 and at worst he has something you already have beat. Let's assume that he does have you beat right now, because if you didn't think he had you beat, you would have called.

If he has a set, your chance of winning is around 25%.

If he has a hand that dominates yours now like A6, A9 or A3, your chance of winning is around 45%.

If he has a pocket pair less than your Q, like JJ, TT, 88, 77, etc your chance of winning is at worst 50% on up to 55% favorite.

So by the math, the absolute worst case scenario is that he has a hand that will beat you 75% of the time, a 3:1. But the pot is giving you a little less than 3:1. But if he doesn't have you beat with a set already, you are about even money with most of the other hands and even ahead on some. I would have definitely called just for that reason. In a sit&go with 50 people, I think it is more likely that someone will overplay a hand, meaning it is more likely he would have a hand that you want him to have than not. And the other way to look at is by the outcomes. If you do win this hand, you'll be a good spot chip wise for the rest of the game, and if you lose, you will have lost to a hand that isn't that much ahead.

There are a couple drawing hands in holdem that are very powerful and you need to know when to recognize these. They are the pair and the flush draw and the flush draw and overcards. Assuming you have the nut draw, then you are usually even money with someone, sometimes even ahead. Compare having your hand above when he had JJ. You are actually ahead in the hand.

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