04-25-05, LearnTexasHoldem:
AQ versus JJ
I really enjoy your site and hopefully you can clear up a disagreement in our poker group. Group size - 8 to 10 typically. I say that a pair of jacks is a better starting hand than A/Q. He says that A/Q has a higher win percentage than the pair of jacks - who's correct? Nine people started hand only two saw flow - A/Q and JJ.
Looking forward to your response and thanks,
Bill
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Answer: Statistically, AQ and JJ are about equal to win the pot if both players go all-in preflop. Note though that "going all-in preflop" is a big qualification. If you watch a lot of the WPT on TV, you'll see percentages for who will win the hand. Those texas holdem probabilities are misleading because if the player misses the flop completely, they are usually out of luck and won't continue (unless bluffing). No limit holdem hands and limit holdem hands are slightly different because of this reason, regardless of what the preflop stats say.
Let me give an example of a hand so you can see the difference. In no limit holdem, 55 or 66 is a decently strong hand. It is strong because unless the other player who you are against has a pair too preflop, the chance of them catching a pair on the flop is relatively low (let alone a pair strong enough that they will feel comfortable calling the rest of the hand down with). Even if they have two overcards, unless the money goes all-in preflop, you are ahead quite a bit. Now take 55 or 66 in limit holdem.
Most of the time the pots are multi-way (more than two opponents), and people see the turn or even river with weak draws. Because 55 and 66 have so many overcards and there isn't a great way to protect the hand on the flop, it loses much of it's strength that it had in NLH. So which hand would I prefer in both games and why? In both games, even if said poker hands are technically even money if played till the river, I would prefer to be the person who already has a hand.
In poker having a made hand already is a huge advantage even if the numbers suggest that you are currently neck and neck. I like JJ more than the AQ in both limit and no limit. There are more flops that JJ will look strong with than AQ. Also, let's say the flop comes back Ten high when you have JJ; in both no limit holdem and limit holdem, the chances of you getting action and still winning are good. On the other hand if you have AQ and the flop comes back Ace high, your hand is pretty obvious and if you do get excessive action, you can't feel that great (most likely the other guy has two pair).
I think in the long run the JJ will make more money than the AQ will, if played correctly. Lastly, when you have JJ, and even if the money goes all-in preflop, you are a huge favorite over anything besides two overcards or a bigger pair. There aren't many hands that are equal or above JJ. You have AK, AQ, KQ. So out of all the hands that someone could potentially call you with and be even money to win, there are only three. With AQ though, the guy could have any pair and be 50/50, or have AK and be way ahead, or any other two cards and only be slightly behind. The only hands the AQ does really well against in NLH are smaller Aces.
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