02-19-04, LearnTexasHoldem:
4/2 Rule for calculating odds...
Question: Just got turned onto your site and let me just say, it's great! I heard about a "shortcut" to figuring out poker odds that I really like; the 4 - 2 rule. It says to take the number of outs you have before the turn and simply multiply it by 4 to determine your success rate. Do the same thing before the river but multiply it by 2. Are there any "shortcuts" that use this same methodology to figuring out whether I should stay in the hand? If so, what are they? If not, should I conform and just use the normal way of calculating odds? Please help. Thanks. Brandon W. Howe
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Answer: Thanks for the question Brandon. I too have heard of the 4/2 rule. Let's put it to the test on a hand and see if it is fairly accurate. Let's use the common flush draw. You have 9hTh and the flop is Ah - 4h - 6s You have 9 hearts to complete the hand which means to catch it by the river you do this (9/47 and 9/46) which is about 35%. If you miss it on the turn card and have to catch it only on the river then the chance is 9/46 which is about 20%. Using the 4/2 rule we get 4x9outs = 36% and 2x9 outs for 18%. So for all intents and purposes, the 4/2 rule works very well. That is a good tip!
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