02-18-09, Clark Jensen:
Misplayed or Bad beat?
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He's a risk taker, likes to bluff, and I'm pretty good at reading him. He also tends to donk off his big stack a good portion of the time trying to be tricky when he should be conservative. This was my knockout hand. I'm on the button and look down at 8c 9c, so I limp behind 2 other limpers (including the big stack), and the blinds stay in as well.
The flop comes 6h 10c 5s. Checked to the big stack who bets 2000 into the 12000 pot. Against most players, I'll let this go, but knowing that with his stack he'll bet with just about any 2 cards here (overcards, any pair, etc.), and because it was such a weak bet, I called with my gutshot straight draw and backdoor flush draw. Everyone else folded.
The turn was the 7c. Jackpot. Gives me the nut straight, as well as a straight flush draw. He bets 7000, so now I'm thinking he must have something. A pair or maybe 2 pair. I figure I'll make more by smooth calling instead of raising, because if he DOES have a hand, he'll fire on the river if he thinks I'm weak by just calling. The river is the 3c, and he immediately says "all-in" to which I immediately call (he does this a lot to exaggerate the strength of his hand and scare tight players off).
He shows the Kc 2c and I'm heading home losing to flush over flush. The guy next to me said I should have shoved the turn with my straight, but how can I put him on a better flush when he was betting the flop and we both needed runner runner? Especially when I had 2 clubs in my hand? I still maintain that against this opponent, the same play will be +EV over the long run.
Afterwards, I was thinking about his odds and how far behind he was on the turn. Because I had 2 clubs, and 2 of the remaining clubs made me a straight flush (would have loved to have seen his face if one of those came out), he was drawing to 5 outs on the river, so only about 10% to hit.
So, was this just unlucky? Or did I misplay the hand by not applying pressure on the turn when I hit the nut straight? (With his stack, it's entirely possible he would have called with his king high flush draw anyway). Or did he misplay the hand by betting so weakly into a draw heavy board on the flop?
Honest criticism wanted!
/Jamie
Answer:
Hi Jamie,
thanks for your email. It's an interesting hand you are describing. With such a (seemingly) good read of your opponent I think you play the hand well.
I have some thoughts about your call on the flop. It's not bad at all, you have a gutshot and you might even have the best hand if you pair one of your hole cards. But there are other options. When you read your opponent as weak with his 2,000 bet I would consider a raise to take the pot away from him right there and if he calls you still have outs. Both options are worth considering and I'm not saying that one of them is better than the other. If you should raise here depends on your read of your big-stack opponents and how you estimate the chance of him folding.
I don't have much to say about the rest of the hand and think you play it very well. I like your call on the turn. Here you want to keep your opponent in the hand and hopefully pay you off on the river. That he also happens to have a flush draw is just bad luck and as you said he only have 5 outs here. (I agree that there is a pretty good chance that he would have called an all-in here anyway and you would still have lost your whole stack.) When the flush hits on the river, there's not much you can do, you're bound to loose all your chips.
Good luck at the tables!
Regards,
Clark Jensen
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