08-31-09, Clark Jensen:
How to Know When an Opponent Get Two Pair on Turn?
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Chris
Hi Chris
I agree with you. It is hard to know when an opponent, especially one with an unorthodox plying style, has hit two pair on turn or river. There are times where you simply have to pay him off. However, if you analyze your opponent's pre-flop play as well as the cards that fall on fourth and fifth street, you can make a more qualified guess where you are in the hand.
Say that you raise with Th-Tc from cut-off position and small blind - a straightforward, tight player - calls you. The flop is 2s - 5s - 7d. Your opponent checks, you bet 75% of the pot, and your opponent calls. The river is Qc. Your opponent checks and you start pondering what to do. Could he have improved to two pair?
In this situation I would say that it's highly unlikely that you're up against two pair. There is one question you must ask yourself: Is it likely that the queen could have improved his hand? Well, then he must have played Q-7, Q-5 or Q2, which are hands tight players, or most players to be honest, fold when facing a raise in the small blind. And since the queen didn't complete any flush or straight, the best option is probably to bet out again.
But what about if Ac comes after the 2s - 5s - 7d flop? Now there is a far greater risk that your opponent improved his hand. He could have called pre-flop with A-7, A-5 or A-2 and called your continuation bet with one pair. Perhaps you should bet out anyway to protect your hand against flush/straight draws, but you have to remember that two pair is a possible hand at this moment.
The bottom line is that it's tough to figure out when someone has hit two pair on turn or river, but if you examine the pre-flop play and the cards that come, you will most definitely make wiser decisions.
Clark - LTH.com
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