10-12-03, LearnTexasHoldem:

More about Implied Odds

If you know anything about poker, then you've inevitably heard quite a few poker terms that deal with odds: pot odds, drawing odds and implied odds. While most good poker books will cover the basics of calculating drawing odds and counting pot odds, an important but often untouched on aspect of poker focuses on implied odds.

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Implied odds is a concept that ties into pot odds, by trying to read ahead of the game. Instead of simply determining whether you should be making a draw based on the amount of chips currently in the pot, implied odds asks if you should be making a draw not only based on the current chips in the pot, but the chips that will be in the pot. This concept requires you to predict the future actions of your opponent, which will require on your part, both a higher level of thinking and observation of your opponent.

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Example hand:

You are playing in a full table, no limit cash game, with blinds of $0.50/$1.00. The blinds post and there are 3 limpers. You look down and find yourself holding Ks Ts in the button. You call and the SB folds and BB checks (pot is $5). The flop comes down: As 2s 5c.

 

The BB starts the action by betting $5 and is called by a limper in early position. The other limper folds and the action is on to you. You can see that the pot holds $15 and thus, your pot odds are 3:1 to make this call. You know how to calculate poker odds so you also know that your nut flush draw requires you to have 4:1 pot odds in order to make this call. Knowing basic poker odds, you would fold this hand because you are not getting the proper odds to draw. With implied odds however, we will take your level of thinking one-step further to show why you can make these kinds of calls.

 

What implied odds does, is make you ask yourself whether or not there will be enough money added to the pot on the turn, that would still make your draw profitable or at least break even. Knowing that you have a 4:1 draw, the means your $5 call requires $20 in the pot in order to break even. This means your opponents need to put at least $5 into the pot on the turn for our call to work since the pot is currently at $15. Whether or not your opponents will put more money in when a threatening spade hits, is dependent on your observation.

Let's say you know that the BB is a very tight player and is easily scared out of pots. If he sees the flush threat on the board and you bet you, you feel that there is a reasonably good chance that he will fold to any bet, big or small. However, you know that your other opponent is very loose and is quite likely on a draw themselves. You are pretty sure that not only would he put $5 into the pot should you make your flush, but you could probably get at least $10 more out of him. This means that if you put $5 to make the call, you would at least be getting 4:1 pot odds and more likely, 6:1 pot odds. Based on this information, you decide to make the call.

The dealer flips the turn card and shows a 4s, giving you the nut flush. The BB checks (as you predicted he would) and your other opponent checks as well. You bet $10 into the pot and the BB folds and remaining opponent calls. The river comes a blank, your opponent checks and you bet another $15. Your opponent calls, you show the nut flush and your opponent mucks the hand.

What should have been a folding hand with 3:1 pot odds and 4:1 drawing odds, has now turned into a profit with a resulting 8:1 pot odds equivalent as a result.

How to Apply Implied Odds Correctly

In the above example, you can now see that in certain situations, you should be making draws even when the current pot odds vs drawing odds dictate that you fold. This is why implied concepts are valuable when determining realistic poker odds. In order to make these type of plays however, you must be observant enough on your opponents to predict whether or not they will pay you off, if you manage to hit your hand. If in the example, both of your opponents folded when you bet the flush, you would have still "won" the pot, but it would have been the mathematically bad choice to make.

The general assumption about observation and whether your opponents will pay you off, is that tight players tend to fold while loose players tend to call. This means that against tight players, you only want to make implied calls when the pot odds are close with your drawing odds. Against loose players, you will want to do the opposite by making more implied draws where your pot odds stray further from your drawing odds.

Caution however- using implied odds is a dangerous tool, because it uses your skills to gain an extra edge on your opponent, but also can backfire in the long run if you do not apply it correctly. Making very risky draws that don't pay you back in the long run is exactly what bad players do, so walking the fine line between playing loose and playing smart is not often easy. Having a good understand of basic poker odds and how to calculate them is imperative to properly applying this concept.

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