09-28-07, LearnTexasHoldem:
Flopped nuts loosing to runner-runner
Question:
This hand happend to me in a 2/4 Cashgame a couple of days ago.
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I was in the big blind with Ah Qh. Four players limp, and I decide, despite knowing that raises will be called frequently, to make it 15. Two limpers from early position call me, one of them (the second one) is very agressive.
The flop comes 2h 4h 9h, I flopped the nuts. Hoping that someone cought a pair, or that the aggressive player in position with a draw or something tries to take a stab at the pot, I check. The second player also checks, as does the last one (I was not very delighted, because now I thought I won't get any more money out of them, unless they catch up).
The turn card is the 9c. Now I no longer have the nuts, but obviously still the best hand, so I bet out 25 in a pot of about 60. The second guy instantly raises to 100, 75 more to me, and the third player folds.
All of a sudden, I thought I was beat. My first instincts told me he flopped a set and slowplayed it (despite the dangerous bord) hoping that the aggressive player in position will bet. He had me covered, and I didn't know what to do. I thought the best move would be to call and check-call the river, hoping that he only had three 9s or two pair (putting me on a flushdraw or something simmilar).
So I called the 75 more, and the river brought the Jd, a complete blank to me. Following through my thoughts, I checked and he bet another 100. It really looked like a pure value bet, but I called disgustedly saying "You got me with a full house."
To my surprise, he turned over Jc 9s, giving him a full house, but not the one I expected him to have. I was completely right with my second thought, as he told me later that he put me on the Ah, but not on the flopped nuts (which is in fact very good as i disguised my hand completely).
I got nearly completely stacked, leaving me with only 60 left. Could I have played the hand any different?
Dominik
Answer:
You could, of course, have played the hand in another way, but it is hard to imagine that it would have changed the outcome of this hand significantly. I think there is a better way of playing the hand though.
My advice is to lead out directly on the flop with a semi-big bet of 60% of the pot. Why? If another heart comes on the turn the action dies and by betting you build the pot which is what you want to do with the nuts.
In this example it would have been perfect to bet. The player with the nine would probably have called. When the second nine comes on the turn you would bet again and all your chips would have been in the pot with you as a huge favorite.
I don't agree that it is probable that he flopped a set when he raises you on the turn. Just as you say, it is a very dangerous flop for a set, and most players would raise then and there.
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