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This is the story of a man who just runs bad. It doesn't matter what stakes I play, who I play against, or how I play - I just take bad beat after bad beat. It'd be comical if it wasn't so tragic. Consider the following run that happened in a single evening at BoDog Poker (note: this sequence is only slightly worse than what I go through on a regular basis): Part 1: A $3+0.30 last-chance qualifier to the $20,000 guarantee; 23 players enter with the winner getting the spot. We're down to 13 players, and I'm down to 850 chips (the starting stack was 1500) with the blinds at 30-60. I look down in second position and see the rockets: two black aces. The player in first position limps in, and I raise to 200. Action folds around to the limper, who promptly reraises me all-in - which I'm only too happy to call. (He has me out-chipped nearly 3-1). I show my aces, and he shows...A-K of diamonds; a good starting hand, but about a 9:1 underdog preflop against aces. The flop comes out K-7-7 with no diamonds. The turn is a blank, meaning he needs one of the last two kings in the deck to knock me out...which is exactly what he gets on the river. Just like that, I go from doubling up and getting back in contention to out of the tournament. The other player apologized afterwards and acknowledged how lucky he had been - but it didn't take away the sting.

Part 2: Shortly afterwards in a $4+0.40 two-table sit-and-go. We're in the first session of blinds (10-20) and I'm close to the starting stack of 1,500. I look down at A-K off-suit in the small blind. The player under the gun had made the min. raise to forty, and the player in the cut-off position calls. I reraise to 100, and both the original raiser and call call the reraise (everyone else folds). The flop comes K-10-10 rainbow. I bet a little over half the pot; the original raiser folds, and the other player calls. The flop is a queen, giving me an inside-straight draw. I decide to move all-in; I've already seen this player call down with marginal hands, and am pretty sure he would have raised on the flop if he had a 10. After I push, he calls instantly and shows...10-3 off-suit. All that can save me on the river is a jack or another king, and I get neither. After berating the player for calling both a raise and a reraise preflop with 10-3 off-suit, I storm off, hoping a break will purge some of the bad karma.

Sadly, my story continues with...

Part 3: A $2+0.20 one-table sit-and-go. We're down to three players with the blinds at 100-200, and one player has me and the other player significantly out-chipped (I have about 2,200). The other short-stack limps from the button, I limp in from the small blind with a K-3 of hearts, and the big stack checks in the small blind. The flop comes 6-5-4 with two hearts, giving me an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. I semi-bluff out for 200, and the big stack immediately re-raises me another 200. The third player folds. After thinking a few seconds, I call. I figure he has at least one pair or maybe two (I know he doesn't have a set - he'd have raised pre-flop in three-handed), but know I have a lot of outs. The turn comes a non-heart deuce, giving me my straight. Having only about 2/3 the pot size in my stack, I move all-in - I know I can get the chips in there if me folds and probably double-up if he calls. After thinking for a long time, he calls, and shows...K-6. Only one pair. The only thing that can go wrong for me now is if one of the three remaining three's comes on the river to chop the pot...which, of course, is exactly what happens. It may not have knocked me out of the tournament - I still managed to finish second - but it felt just as bad.

After running into a standard bad beat in a points sit-and-go where my short-stacked pocket kings meet up with pocket aces, the saga picks up almost immediately with...

Part 4: A $4+0.40 scheduled tournament with an 81-player starting field. It's the second hand after the first break with about half the field out. I won some chips in the first post-break hand but still only have 1,040 with the blinds going up to 50-100. In third position I come across pocket kings. With one person already limping in front of me and my M at 7, I decide it's time to make my stand. The action folds to the big-stack at the table (over 5,000), who calls on the button. Then action folds to the original limper...who pushes all-in! (They had me covered about 2-1). The big stack then calls their all-in push. At this point, I'm terrified of aces. I show my kings, the other all-in pusher shows a blufftastic J-9 of diamonds, and the big stack shows...A-5 off-suit; certainly not something I would have called a big preflop raise with. Either way, I'm in great position to triple up and be chip healthy again. Of course, this is a bad beat saga, so you know that didn't happen. The flop came 7-7-5, the turn was a 6, and the river another 5; I lose to fives full of sevens. Once again I chide my executioner for making such a flimsy pre-flop call and mourn my ill fortune.

If only this was a four-parter. But there is an epilogue to this tragedy...

Epilogue: A $2+0.20 one-table sit-and-go. We're one spot shy of the money with the blinds at 25-50 and I have 1795 chips. I'm in the big blind with a K-5 off-suit. The big stack at the table (over 4500) limps in from early position, the small blind limps in, and I happily check. The flop comes K-8-5 with two diamonds, giving me top-and-bottom pairs. I lead out for 100 (if it's a limp pot and the flop texture is good, I almost always lead out whether I have a hand or). The big stack raises to 250, and the small blind folds. I've already seen this guy raise people and call all-ins with clearly inferior hands (and then of course catch a card to knock them out) - so I reraise to 600 total. The big stack just calls; based on this I put him on something like K-J or K-10. The turn is a six of hearts. With 1350 in the pot and 1145 my stack, I go all-in; I'm pretty sure I have the best hand and figure he'll call if he has a king. He calls immediately and turns over...K-J. A great read on my part! I'm all set to double up unless a jack, eight, or six comes up the river...and of course an eight arrives to knock me out. It may not be a brutal beat in and of itself - but it only compounded the frustration and despair I felt.

Incredibly, after all this I was able to bounce back and finish second in a $4+0.40 two-table sit-and-go, winning back most of the money I had lost. But the reality remains that I run worse than almost any player I know. For every good tournament finish I have, I run into a sequence like the one above that costs me all of what I had gained. I firmly believe that poker is more about skill than luck - but almost all the luck there is seems to have conspired against me. It'd be enough to make me hate poker if I didn't love it so much.

-Michael

 

Answer:

Hi Michel,
that's a though evening. Unfortunately tournament poker has a larger luck factor than regular ring games, at least in the short run.
Hope your luck will turn!

Regards, Clark
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